Classified: America In Iraq Until At Least ‘09

July 23rd, 2007 Posted By Pat Dollard.

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July 24, 2007
U.S. Seen in Iraq Until at Least ’09

By MICHAEL R. GORDON
NY Times

BAGHDAD, July 23 — While Washington is mired in political debate over the future of Iraq, the American command here has prepared a detailed plan that foresees a significant American role for the next two years.

The classified plan, which represents the coordinated strategy of the top American commander and the American ambassador, calls for restoring security in local areas, including Baghdad, by the summer of 2008. “Sustainable security” is to be established on a nationwide basis by the summer of 2009, according to American officials familiar with the document.

The detailed document, known as the Joint Campaign Plan, is an elaboration of the new strategy President Bush signaled in January when he decided to send five additional American combat brigades and other units to Iraq. That signaled a shift from the previous strategy, which emphasized transferring to Iraqis the responsibility for safeguarding their security.

That new approach put a premium on protecting the Iraqi population in Baghdad, on the theory that improved security would provide Iraqi political leaders with the breathing space they needed to try political reconciliation.

The latest plan, which covers a two-year period, does not explicitly address troop levels or withdrawal schedules. It anticipates a decline in American forces as the “surge” in troops runs its course later this year or in early 2008. But it nonetheless assumes continued American involvement to train soldiers, act as partners with Iraqi forces and fight terrorist groups in Iraq, American officials said.

The goals in the document appear ambitious, given the immensity of the challenge of dealing with die-hard Sunni insurgents, renegade Shiite militias, Iraqi leaders who have made only fitful progress toward political reconciliation, as well as Iranian and Syrian neighbors who have not hesitated to interfere in Iraq’s affairs. And the White House’s interim assessment of progress, issued n July 12, is mixed.

But at a time when critics at home are defining patience in terms of weeks, the strategy may run into the expectations of many lawmakers for an early end to the American mission here.

The plan, developed by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the senior American commander, and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador, has been briefed to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. William J. Fallon, the head of the Central Command. It is expected to be formally issued to officials here this week.

The plan envisions two phases. The “near-term” goal is to achieve “localized security” in Baghdad and other areas no later than June 2008. It envisions encouraging political accommodations at the local level, including with former insurgents, while pressing Iraq’s leaders to make headway on their program of national reconciliation.

The “intermediate” goal is to stitch together such local arrangements to establish a broader sense of security on a nationwide basis no later than June 2009.

“The coalition, in partnership with the government of Iraq, employs integrated political, security, economic and diplomatic means, to help the people of Iraq achieve sustainable security by the summer of 2009,” a summary of the campaign plan states.

Military officials here have been careful not to guarantee success, and recognized they may need to revise the plan if some assumptions were not met.

“The idea behind the surge was to bring stability and security to the Iraqi people, primarily in Baghdad because it is the political heart of the country, and by so doing give the Iraqis the time and space needed to come to grips with the tough issues they face and enable reconciliation to take place,” said Col. Peter Mansoor, the executive officer to General Petraeus.

“If eventually the Iraqi government and the various sects and groups do not come to some sort of agreement on how to share power, on how to divide resources and on how to reconcile and stop the violence, then the assumption on which the surge strategy was based is invalid, and we would have to re-look the strategy,” Colonel Mansoor added.

General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker will provide an assessment in September on trends in Iraq and whether the strategy is viable or needs to be changed.

The previous plan, developed by Gen. George W. Casey Jr., who served as General Petraeus’s predecessor before being appointed as chief of staff of the Army, was aimed at prompting the Iraqis to take more responsibility for security by reducing American forces.

That approach faltered when the Iraqi security forces showed themselves unprepared to carry out their expanded duties, and sectarian killings soared.

In contrast, the new approach reflects the counterinsurgency precept that protection of the population is best way to isolate insurgents, encourage political accommodations and gain intelligence on numerous threats. A core assumption of the plan is that American troops cannot impose a military solution, but that the United States can use force to create the conditions in which political reconciliation is possible.

To develop the plan, General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker assembled a Joint Strategic Assessment Team, which sought to define the conflict and outline the elements of a new strategy. It included officers like Col. H. R. McMaster, the field commander who carried out the successful “clear, hold and build” operation in Tal Afar and who wrote a critical account of the Joint Chiefs of Staff role during the Vietnam War; Col. John R. Martin, who teaches at the Army War College and was a West Point classmate of General Petraeus; and David Kilcullen, an Australian counterinsurgency expert who has a degree in anthropology.

State Department officials, including Robert Ford, an Arab expert and the American ambassador to Algeria, were also involved. So were a British officer and experts outside government like Stephen D. Biddle, a military expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The team determined that Iraq was in a “communal struggle for power,” in the words of one senior officer who participated in the effort. Adding to the problem, the new Iraqi government was struggling to unite its disparate factions and to develop the capability to deliver basic services and provide security.

Extremists were fueling the violence, as were nations like Iran, which they concluded was arming and equipping Shiite militant groups, and Syria, which was allowing suicide bombers to cross into Iraq.

Like the Baker-Hamilton commission, which issued its report last year, the team believed that political, military and economic efforts were needed, including diplomatic discussions with Iran, officials said. There were different views about how aggressive to be in pressing for the removal of overtly sectarian officials, and several officials said that theme was toned down somewhat in the final plan.

The plan itself was written by the Joint Campaign Redesign Team, an allusion to the fact that the plan inherited from General Casey was being reworked. Much of the redesign has already been put into effect, including the decision to move troops out of large bases and to act as partners more fully with the Iraqi security forces.

The overarching goal, an American official said, is to advance political accommodation and avoid undercutting the authority of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. While the plan seeks to achieve stability, several officials said it anticipates that less will be accomplished in terms of national reconciliation by the end of 2009 than did the plan developed by General Casey.

The plan also emphasizes encouraging political accommodation at the local level. The command has established a team to oversee efforts to reach out to former insurgents and tribal leaders. It is dubbed the Force Strategic Engagement Cell, and is overseen by a British general. In the terminology of the plan, the aim is to identify potentially “reconcilable” groups and encourage them to move away from violence.

However, groups like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a Sunni Arab extremist group that American intelligence officials say has foreign leadership, and cells backed by Iran are seen as implacable foes.

“You are not out there trying to defeat your enemies wholesale,” said one military official who is knowledgeable about the plan. “You are out there trying to draw them into a negotiated power-sharing agreement where they decide to quit fighting you. They don’t decide that their conflict is over. The reasons for conflict remain, but they quit trying to address it through violence. In the end, we hope that that alliance of convenience to fight with Al Qaeda becomes a connection to the central government as well.”

The hope is that sufficient progress might be made at the local level to encourage accommodation at the national level, and vice versa. The plan also calls for efforts to encourage the rule of law, such as the establishment of secure zones in Baghdad and other cities to promote criminal trials and process detainee cases.

To help measure progress in tamping down civil strife, Col. William Rapp, a senior aide to General Petraeus, oversaw an effort to develop a standardized measure of sectarian violence. One result was a method that went beyond the attacks noted in American military reports and which incorporated Iraqi data.

“We are going to try a dozen different things,” said one senior officer. “Maybe one of them will flatline. One of them will do this much. One of them will do this much more. After a while, we believe there is chance you will head into success. I am not saying that we are absolutely headed for success.”


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14 Responses

  1. deathstar

    Sounds like a good plan, Petraeus knows his stuff. Oh yeah, and fuck the NYT for publishing classified information and fuck the leaker.

  2. RTLM

    Thanks NYT. You pack of miserable traitorous bastards.

  3. TexasFred

    I personally would be surprised if we’re out of Iraq by ‘09, regardless of who the POTUS is, and if it all depends on the Iraqi forces being at 100% and at the ready. it’s only a crap shoot as to when we leave…

    I’m old and retired now, all I do is sit back and make comments and write my blog because I am NOT going back, not because I don’t want to either, I can’t go back, I’m 100% disabled, but my son has been there, he went with the 256th BCT and they took some heavy losses, my son was on patrol on Route Irish and was in several pretty good dust ups, I had a friend that was on the staff of the 256th’s Brig. Gen. John Basilica, I had friends and relatives in Iraq and thank God they all came back in one piece…

    My sons bunch aren’t scheduled for a return rotation until sometime in late 2010 if we’re still there, and somehow, I feel we will be…

    Call me selfish, my son ETS’s in early 2010 and I am looking forward TO that time with much anticipation…

    And please don’t think I’m an anti war moonbat, I’m not, but I sure do believe this one could have been managed a lot differently…

    In any case, our troops have a long road ahead of them, and the dangers are always there, as anyone that’s been in combat can tell you, God bless em ALL…

  4. everydayjoe

    The path to winning this conflict is so simple and obvious that it escapes nearly everyone who comments on it, just as it escapes many on the ground. And interestingly, you’re seeing flashes and waves of it in many of the various cities, towns, and provinces, - equally amongst Sunni, Shia, and Kurds, and it will continue to grow, if nurtured properly.

    “IT” simply boils down to this; “the will of the people,” - not necessarily the people of America, or the people in the US military, or the dickheads in the US congress, or the people in the Iraqi Government, but EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THOSE IRAQI CITIZENS that bravely made the journey, cast their vote, and walked away with a purple finger, and each and every one of those citizens that volunteered to become soldiers and police — to protect and defend the rest of the citizenry of the sovereign state of Iraq; as defined by THEIR constitution.

    THEY ALONE, TRULY have the power to make it work.

    As a reminder, the words born of blood and sweat that eventually led to what we all proudly call home:

    “WE THE PEOPLE of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United State of America.”

    They must not give up hope, or be influenced by the extremist, libtard, or leftist factions.

    ARE EFFORTS BEING MADE TO TEACH THE IRAQIS WHAT CITIZENSHIP IS? (…you know, that vague concept that hasn’t been taught here in America for, oh, about 20 years…)

  5. Egfrow

    Who the fuck in our government is leaking this shit! Roque CIA, disgruntled Liberals, This shit is treasonous! They are going to get people killed to sell Ad space. The NYT stock share value is down to 1095 levels. Someone put this old dog down.

  6. danielle

    Why are they letting the enemies know EVERYTHING :sad:

  7. Egfrow

    Iran busts secret spy squirrel network.

    http://www.engadget.com/2007/07/21/gps-equipped-spy-squirrels-arrested-by-iranians/

  8. andrew

    Although this is classified, I don’t think it is enough that it would be detrimental to Coalition forces in Iraq. That being said, reading through this article gives me much optimism for the current strategy that is taking place with the surge, and the upcoming varying strategies they will be making. Reading up on the bio’s of the planners of the new strategy gives me due confidence in these men. Just read up on some of the people involved. When Bush states that he will only make decisions based on the Generals on the ground, it all makes sense.

    Key players involved in the new strategy for victory in Iraq besides General Petraeus and Ryan Crocker (U.S. Amb to Iraq)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._R._McMaster (Col. McMaster, creator of the clear, hold, build strategy that has been a success in Tal Afar, and author of an influential book about the deeply flawed military strategy during Vietnam, which was widely read and hailed within military circles.)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kilcullen (has a doctorate in political anthropology, focusing on the effects of guerrilla warfare on non-state political systems in traditional societies)

    http://www.cfr.org/bios/2603/stephen_biddle.html (award-winning author of Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle)

    I too agree with TexasFred, the war could have been managed better from the get-go, but these patriotic technocrats hammering out a viable solution in Iraq gives me faith for an eventual secure Iraq.

  9. Brian H

    I wonder if the Times’ editors even made a token pass at considering whether or not to print “classified” plans. Probably not.

  10. David M.

    I blame Gonzalez. Why is the NYT editor not sitting
    in a jail somewhere? Gonzalez has had plenty of chances to
    prosecute. Appeasing liberals doesn’t work. It just makes
    them more crazy.

  11. Future0311

    @David M.

    Sounds like someone familiar, doesn’t it?

    Liberals and jihadists, one and the same in my eyes.

  12. Dan(The Infidel)

    Several key words here: NY Times and leak. I don’t put any stock in NY Times stories. Was this a memo that has been making the rounds and not a classified doc? Knowing these shithead civilians they couldn’t tell the diff anyways?

    That pic is illustrative of the war in Iraq. It is we who are carrying the Iraqis on our shoulders. They should treat us as the big brother in the clan rather than the black sheep.

  13. skip1

    We stay in force in Iraq until we win WWIII. May take 20 yrs as most wars unlike WWI & WWII are LONG (20-50 yrs are the norm). Simple as that. If the Dems get their way & we cut & run from Iraq, in reality the whole Middle East then we will loose WWIII & are way of life. Simple as that.

  14. Dan(The Infidel)

    One of the most successful COIN OP was in the early part of the 20th Century against the Phillipine insurgents. It took general order 100 and 14 years to put that rebellion down.

    What’s missing in this COIN is Gen Order 100.

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