Why Iran Won’t Be The First To Blink
Independent:
We are in a makeshift ladies’ changing room, putting on protective clothing for a tour of the throbbing heart of Iran’s nuclear programme.
It is a welcome respite to replace a hot Islamic shawl with a shower cap. We don surgical gloves, white trousers and tops, face masks and plastic shoe covers for an hour-long trip around the Esfahan conversion plant, whose hissing vacuums and cylinders are working round the clock to produce feed material for Iran’s nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz.
The Esfahan facility in central Iran, functioning under complete United Nations scrutiny, is presumed to be a likely target of any US military strike aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear programme before its scientists can manufacture enough fuel for a bomb at Natanz.
With a new round of UN sanctions looming to punish Iran for its refusal to halt the Esfahan activities and uranium enrichment at Natanz, the Iranian government has launched a charm offensive designed to ensure public opinion in Europe and the US that its nuclear intentions are purely peaceful.
Western governments continue to insist that Iran must suspend enrichment as a precondition for negotiations, because of the deep mistrust stemming from the country’s 18-year concealment of the most sensitive aspects of its nuclear programme.
The Independent and five other journalists from Britain, France, Germany and the US - whose governments will decide whether there can be a peaceful solution to the crisis with Iran - were invited to Iran by the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with a promise of unprecedented access to the country’s most senior officials and it’s most sensitive nuclear plants. However at the last minute the Iranians set limits on the scope of the visit, cancelling trips to the critical facility at Natanz and to the controversial Arak plant under construction. The last-minute decision, put down to “technical problems”, illustrated once again the opacity of the power structure in Iran, where overall decisions are made by the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps holds sway in the shadows.
The conversion plant, in the shadow of jagged sandstone mountains into which tunnels have been excavated for security and the safe storage of nuclear material, is located just 15km south-east of Esfahan, one of the most beautiful cities in the Islamic world.
The facility is approached by a half-hour drive along a desert road flanked with military hardware. Here, we can see for ourselves how the Islamic republic came to raise its nuclear programme to such a level of national pride and independence that the atomic symbol is now printed on a banknote.
We are escorted into a hall where a banner proclaims: “Nuclear energy is our obvious right.”
A short propaganda film, accompanied by stirring music, shows the triumph of Iranian scientists as they celebrated the production of the first vial of uranium hexafluoride from yellowcake in 2004. Since that breakthrough - according to Hamid Mohajerani, the plant’s 30-year old general manager - some 200 tons of uranium hexafluoride gas have been produced. The feed material, stored in white cylinders, is dispatched, in full view of the cameras of the International Atomic Energy Agency, for enrichment to Natanz where the IAEA has confirmed Iran’s claim to have mastered the technology to enrich the uranium hexafluoride to the 3.5 per cent level required for civil purposes.
If the uranium was enriched to 93 per cent or more, Iran would have weapons grade fuel. However Western experts say the country is still between five and 10 years away from producing a bomb.
The West’s need for objective guarantees of Iran’s peaceful intentions has been further reinforced with the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
A fierce critic of the West, he has raised tensions with Israel through his repeated references to the disappearance of the Jewish state. He is also a firm believer in the prophesied return of the Shia “hidden imam”. According to some scholars, a nuclear holocaust may be needed to hasten the promised reappearance of the 12th imam who disappeared into a cave in 878.
But the Esfahan conversion plant’s public relations general manager, Hossein Simorg, stresses: “All our activities are completely peaceful, and all activities are applied for peaceful, industrial and agricultural work.”
We are led through chambers where chemical processes purify the yellowcake and convert it into a variety of compounds that can be used for enrichment or fuel production. Mr Mohajerani says that the main purpose at present of the plant, which is still being expanded, is to produce hexafluoride gas for enrichment as part of a civilian programme to meet the burgeoning demand for electricity, with Iran’s oil exports predicted to dry up in 20 years. Mr Simorg appeals to us to “write about what you see, not about political matters”.
But Iran’s nuclear programme is inseparable from international politics. Hence the Iranian government’s attempts to end UN Security Council involvement in order to clarify outstanding “technical” issues with the IAEA which has been unable to guarantee the programme’s “exclusively peaceful nature”. America has successfully pressured European, Chinese and Russian governments over the years into restricting nuclear cooperation with Iran.
The next stop on our nuclear tour, at Bushehr in steamy southern Iran, illustrates the Iranian difficulties. The “safe” light-water power plant on the Persian Gulf has been under construction with Russian cooperation for the past 12 years. The contract is now restricted to construction of a single nuclear reactor which is supposed to produce 3,000 megawatts of electricity for the national grid.
To guarantee that no nuclear fuel will be diverted for military purposes, Iran has agreed to receive uranium from Russia and to export the spent fuel back to Russia for reprocessing.
The Bushehr scientists, who were sent for three-year training spells in Russia, say the reactor is 93 per cent complete and will be ready to operate in six months. They remain resolutely optimistic that the first delivery of 80 tons of uranium for the reactor core will soon be on its way.
But after we ram white hard hats over our headscarves to tour the facility in humidity that soon drenches our clothes, it is clear that the huge steel reactor core and adjacent turbine chamber are still a giant construction site.
The Iranian government is convinced that the long delays in completing the plant are the result of political pressure.
The Russians suspended cooperation last March, officially citing payment issues. And on the day of our visit to Bushehr last Wednesday, the Russian government announced that the plant would not begin operating until the second half of next year.
Iran’s invitation to Western journalists shows that the government is reaching out to the outside world.
Yet the PR campaign has been accompanied by officially backed attempts to intimidate Iranians from contact with foreigners, amid fears that the Bush administration is trying to generate a “velvet revolution” that would bring down the country’s clerical rulers.
When the British embassy held its annual garden party on 14 June to mark the Queen’s birthday, Iranian guests were pelted with eggs and tomatoes. And efforts have been made to discourage contact between Iranians and froeigners following demonstrations over the award of a knighthood to the author Salman Rushdie, who in 1989 was the target of a death threat in a religious fatwa for his book the Satanic Verses.
With a Bush administration weakened by the war in Iraq, it is difficult to predict where the nuclear stand-off is heading.
President Bush does not want to hand over an unresolved nuclear crisis with Iran to his successor and continues to declare that all options, including military, remain on the table.
This is a game of chicken played for the highest stakes, involving national pride. It holds the risk of regional conflagration and a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East if Iran continues on its present course. But seen from here, the Iranians will not be the ones to blink first.
They won’t blink first? I don’t think so. If their nuclear program continues unabated, they will use those weapons against Israel and US targets within range of their missiles.
Who’s kidding who? These crazy fools need to be shown the door…The door to hell that is…
July 30th, 2007 at 4:33 pmThere is no greater danger than allowing the rogue wolf Iranian government ruled by religious zealots to obtain A-bombs and H-bombs.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:29 pmThe ayatollahs could think of no greater historical legacy than being the first people in modern times to use the bomb. And if they did so what would happen? their muslim compatriots would revere them, the europeans would placate them, and the world would be driven to the brink of destruction.
Take out the ayatollah assahollas NOW before its too late
Let’s get real here. There is a very good chance that the Iranians will have nuclear missiles in a year. And there is also a chance that Al Qaeda and the Taliban will combine to take over the Pakistani’s nuclear weapons.
It’s time that President Bush calls in the senior leadership of the Senate and House, sits them down in front of the Joint Chiefs and the CIA and reveals the plans to bomb the ever living shit out of those two threats. If Harry Reid says “no!” - piss on him, he is escorted out of the room.
These threats make Saddam Hussein’s WMD threat look like child’s play. And if the clean up is left to a Hillary or an Obama or an Edwards…we are simply doomed.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:45 pmi told ebner that you were the spiritual successor to hunter thompson…especially after that vanity fair article.
it’s entertaining to read your commentary on the current state of international affairs.
take care, and keep fighting the good fight.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:57 pmHey Pat, check this out http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4fb_1185840855
I bet the innocent Iraqi’s in the area are happy that one less terrorist is around attempting to ruin their country.
With much love, Joshua.
July 30th, 2007 at 7:01 pmAhmedinejad’s govt is a truck w/out brakes. They are drunk on their own momentum, and the absurd restraint of the Cowardly, urr, Free World. They will only be stopped by a colossal smashing force.
IOW, this article is 100% correct–Iran WILL NOT blink first.
July 30th, 2007 at 8:53 pmWhat’s the use in debating this when you have many politicians here think that its all the fault of the present day administration and we should not get involve. Well the last time we didn’t get involve is when Imperial Japan attacks us and nearly wipe out our Navy and went on a six months rampage thru out Asia and the Pacific. We have alway wait until we are attack and then we re-act to the situation. Well when Iran get a few Hiroshima nuclear size bombs or bigger and sneak them across our open borders and set them off maybe, just maybe we will wake up. Admiral Yamamoto said it right when he said “All we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and feel him with a terrible resolve!”
July 31st, 2007 at 6:19 amJeez, they are reaching out to show they have peaceful intentions, yet have proven time and again that when dealing with non- Arabs or Muslims they feel is is okay to practice duplicity adn lies in negotiations. Why would we believe that some rose tinted glasses wearing visitor would be able ot get the full unadulterated truth. Damned peaceniks need to go back to the 60’s and stay out of politics.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:13 amYes, I believe you are correct; Iran will not blink first. There is too much “respect” (or honor)in the Islamic world to gain and it would be shameful (in the eyes of most Muslims) for them to “blink” or backdown at this point. Here is some interesting reading…
Read this first…
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/douglas7.html
If that doesn’t make you wanna toss up lunch, I don’t know what will.
Now read this…
This guy (David Gutmann) has it right! After reading this, you can easily understand why Iran won’t blink first.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1007228/posts
(sorry about the non-working hyper-links; copy and paste them)
Thanks for the opportunity to comment. Maybe there really “is” an formidable undercurrent that can surface and defeat first (as Gutmann states), the negative media, academia, and Michael Moore’s & Co., i.e., take off our pink fuzzy bunny mask and show a game face, and second we might even defeat terrorism; both state sponsored and base sponsored. Just think of such a thing. It’d kind of be like the 1980 Olympic Hockey game; ‘might surprise us all.
August 1st, 2007 at 2:56 pm