Russia’s Bombers And Tanks Too Old To Worry West
Moscow flexes its military muscle again, but west says it is unfit for a fight. “It is depressing but it is not a new cold war.”
Luke Harding in Moscow and Ewen MacAskill in Washington
Saturday August 25, 2007
The Guardian
From the ground it looked an impossible manoeuvre. The Russian Sukhoi-35 shot vertically into the sky before flipping forward in midair. It then raced downwards with an ear-ripping roar. The crowds were impressed. Even the seasoned US pilots standing on the tarmac next to their grey-painted B-52 bomber looked on admiringly. Nearby an array of lethal Russian missiles had been laid out. Next to them Russian pilots chatted under the shade of a formidably armed MiG.
The Maks-2007 international airshow near Moscow was the biggest in Russia’s post-Soviet history - and an apparent symbol of Russia’s resurgent military might. Last week, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia’s ageing fleet of strategic bombers had resumed “combat missions”. On Tuesday, the MoD said the RAF had sent out two Typhoon fighters after spotting a Tupolev-95 bomber heading towards British airspace.
The encounter seemed to symbolise Russia’s renewed military threat and follows a tumultuous eight months in which a hawkish Mr Putin has denounced US power, torn up a conventional arms agreement with Nato, grabbed a symbolic chunk of the Arctic, and accused Britain of “stupidity” in its handling of the Alexander Litvinenko murder.
And yet defence experts were yesterday dismissive of Russian strength, branding its air force a “Potemkin village”. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been forced to slash defence spending, leaving an ill-equipped conscript army to fight in Chechnya. The army’s tanks are old; Russia’s ships and submarines have seen better days; the navy’s much-vaunted sea-launched Bulava missile still doesn’t seem to work, despite a decade of development.
“In terms of military threat they are a joke,” Robert Hewson, the editor of Jane’s Air-Launched Weapons, said, assessing the array of Sukhoi and MiG fighters on display at the airshow, held at the former Soviet Zhukovsky air base. “Everything is a relic from the Soviet era. The level of technology you see in the UK, Sweden and the US is much higher.
“The Russians are very good at radar. They understand missiles and aerodynamic design. They are terrific engineers. But since the end of the cold war their military has got worse.”
The Russian tabloid Trud-7 came to the same conclusion on Thursday, describing the state of Russia’s armed forces as “lamentable”. Pronouncements that Russia had got back its old Soviet military glory were mere “armour rattling” it said.
The state of Russia’s air force is indicative. It has gone an entire decade without a single new plane. Its military aviation industry fared better than its civilian manufacturers, mainly due to large orders from China and India. Until recently the air force could not afford its own products. Its bombers were almost all built decades ago, although it has 60 to 80 Tu-90 “Bear bombers” built in the 90s.
Few experts believe the Bears could ever penetrate British defences. “[The Bear bomber] can carry a load of cruise missiles. But it sticks out like a sore thumb on the radar. It’s slow and cumbersome,” Douglas Barrie, of Aviation Week, said. “What has been portrayed as a return to strategic operations is really sabre-rattling of the most laughable cold war kind. Before Russia returns to Soviet military levels you are looking at a decade-plus of sustained, high-level military investment.”
It seems clear Mr Putin is determined to restore Russia’s status as a global power. Earlier this year Mr Ivanov - Russia’s first deputy prime minister, the man most likely to succeed Mr Putin - announced a £97bn revamp of the armed forces. From now until 2015, Moscow plans to modernise and exceed the Red Army in “combat readiness”, he said. Russia’s current defence budget is £16bn, almost four times the 2001 figure, all paid for by soaring oil and gas revenues.
Russia held wargames last week in the Urals involving troops from Russia and China and four central Asian states. Moscow has infuriated Georgia after a Russian missile landed on the outskirts of its capital, Tbilisi. Much of the military posturing is for internal consumption, ahead of parliamentary elections in December and a presidential poll in spring. Pictures showing a shirtless Mr Putin on a fishing trip have been a source of national pride.
The US appears relaxed about this newfound Russian machismo. After all, Washington’s defence budget is at least 20 times bigger than Moscow’s. And US generals are unperturbed by the Russian Bears close to its airspace. Brigadier-General Richard Sherlock, director of international security operations, was asked at a Pentagon briefing on Thursday about Russian flights close to Guam and Alaska. US planes had been scrambled, but he played down the significance: “Militaries all over the world conduct a variety of operations. This is not something new.”
Sean McCormack, the US state department spokesman, said last week: “If Russia feels as though they want to take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying again, that’s their decision.”
Anatol Lieven, a Russia specialist at the Washington-based New America Foundation, said it was clear Moscow was going to ramp up its response to President George Bush’s controversial missile defence project in eastern Europe.
“It indicates to the US that this move is not cost-free and shows the Russian population that the government is still acting toughly to defend Russian prestige abroad,” he said. “It is depressing but it is not a new cold war.”
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OK, I might get roasted for this but I’ll say it:
Didn’t the German High Command give this same assessment in 1941?
August 25th, 2007 at 5:55 amThat maneuver that the SU-35 can do? Sorry Rusky’s the F-22 can do the same manuever and can stay in afterburner long after tour SU-35 has petered out.
And the Rusky’s are damn near out of combat-trained leaders.
Furthermore Russia has neither the men nor arms that it once had. Most of their equipment is rusting in junk yards or has alredy been melted down for steel.
They got their nukes still…but none of their old prestige.
I wouldn’t completely discount them. But if they truely want to revive the cold war…then both countries will have to start up the Draft again…and Russia will have just as many problems doing that as we will….
Putin is a moron. You can catch more flies with honey than you can with vinegar. Power is fleeting. And the old USSR will never rise again…not unless Vlad The Little Hitler wants a civil war in his own territory.
August 25th, 2007 at 6:03 amOh and I forgot to mention that their MBT’s are no match for anything in the West. The Germans, Brits and the M-1
are head-and-shoulders above anything that the Rusk’s have.
If they were to pit themselves aginst just the US in a conventional war right now…they get their babushkas handed to them.
August 25th, 2007 at 6:15 amBrian, I was thinking the same thing. A few years ago I saw a movie “Russian Ark”, I think that was the name of it. Like a Russian novel it was long and I think I dozed off for the last half hour. But, what I saw was fascinating. Especially the way it was filmed. It was like they put a reel of film with three hours worth of film in the camera. Turn the camera on and start about three-hundred years ago giving a tour of The Hermitage in St. Petersburg, formerly Leningrad, formerly St. Petersburg. I’m pretty sure it was whoever was before Catherine the Great was where the tour began. They say it ended with Gorbachev, but, like I said I missed the ending. I’d like to see it again and sit through it all without dozing off. Better yet, I’d like to go to St. Petersburg, maybe on an Aeroflot and see The Hermitage in person. Mr. Putin, don’t get crazy.
August 25th, 2007 at 6:31 amLook at Putin with his tiny toy Missile, how cute
August 25th, 2007 at 8:01 amBut honestly, the Russian people have became very westernized over the years and are enjoying life for once. I hope this asshole doesnt try to step this thing back into high gear. I would bet every bit of money I will every make in my life that Russia couldnt stand up to us right now..We’re a country that spends 8 times more a year on our military than China does even and we’re battle tested and always ready to rock..Cant say the same for Russia
While the Russian military is behind a good ten years and the equipment they do have is rusting it is not a good idea to underestimate them. We have underestimated people before and it usually turns out bad for us. Russia has every capability to update their forces especially since they have a larger control of their oil and gas supplies. However, it is still foolish of Russia to be so macho about it.
August 25th, 2007 at 10:40 amE.M.P. - Are we hardened enough for a 50 megaton bomb?
The Russian Tsar Bomba is a 26 ton 50 Megaton bomb that can only be delivered by the aging Tupolev-95. A slight reduction in size and the Proton rocket could lift a similar behemoth to a 100-200 mile orbit. The Proton rocket was ‘…hugely oversized for an ICBM…” at the time it only had a 10 megaton warhead. During it’s initial construction it was referred to as a super ICBM.
HMMM, I wonder why the Russians are concerned about our small missile shield.
August 25th, 2007 at 12:42 pmUnderestimate an enemy at your own risk. I have no doubt the U.S. and British military would at some point stomp the Russians but I wouldn’t be so bold as to think it would be so easy
August 25th, 2007 at 12:58 pmI disagree with this assessment that Russian Military is a joke! What we are seeing is a false front. They are only showing us what we already know exists. What we are not seeing is the constant absorption and copying of Western technology in secret by China and Russia in cooperation.
Doing business with either China or Russia get’s your factory and product an ‘Audit’ by government agents or representatives .
Any one need a new Humvee?
http://tinyurl.com/3c4dmz
How about doing some business with a China MFG?
http://tinyurl.com/2wonod
We are going to act complacent with their tactics until the old ones are suddenly replaced with very capable ones. Remember the copying of the B-29’s?
August 25th, 2007 at 4:21 pmHey I saw Russian Ark too! It was kind of boring but interesting.
August 25th, 2007 at 9:58 pmRussia is trying too hard to be a superpower. It’s kind of sad.
Danielle, it had its moments, though. Remember when Catherine ran up the steps? Probably take two weeks to see everything in the place. Wasn’t that seamless way they took you through the ages, no fadeins, fadeouts, just turn the camera on and turn it off four-hundred years later, fascinating?
August 26th, 2007 at 3:35 amIf Russia could barely defeat Chechnya (~2 million people, total), on their own border after close to 10 years, I just don’t see how they cd seriously threaten even a mid-sized country (e.g., Hungary, Czech), in central Europe, absent a nuclear bombardment.
Of course such a large country w/a sophisticated military culture must never be underestimated, but I think it is more dangerous these days in terms of covert support in high-tech and weapons for our jihadi enemies.
August 26th, 2007 at 8:28 am