“Al Qaeda Has An Active Plot…We Are Going To Get Hit Again”
Retired Vice Admiral John Scott Redd, head of the National Counterterrorism Center, says, “We have very strong indicators that Al Qaeda is planning to attack the West.”
Al Qaeda has an active plot to hit the West. The United States knows about it but doesn’t have enough tactical detail to issue a precise warning or raise the threat level, says Vice Admiral (ret.) John Scott Redd, who heads the government’s National Counterterrorism Center. In an interview at his headquarters near Washington, D.C., Redd told Newsweek’s Mark Hosenball and Jeffrey Bartholet that the country is better prepared than ever to counter such threats. But he also believes another successful terror attack on the U.S. homeland is inevitable.
NEWSWEEK: People in various agencies have said that since Tora Bora in 2001, they at no time have had even 50-percent confidence that they knew where Osama bin Laden was on any particular day, and therefore they have been unable to mount any operations to go get him. Is that wrong?
Redd: What I’ll tell you about bin Laden is if we knew where he was, he’d either be dead or captured. It’s that simple. [He’s] obviously a tough target. That whole area is a tough target. And my standard answer on OBL is: remember [convicted Atlanta Olympics bomber] Eric Rudolph. Nobody likes to hear it but, I mean, here’s a guy [who was on the run] in the United States of America. We had unlimited access—the FBI, local law enforcement—and the guy hid out for an awful long time just by keeping a low profile. One reporter said the other day, “Well, gee, you’ve got all this great overhead stuff and various surveillance things.” I said, “Yeah. I’d trade those for about three great human sources.”
Why do people believe bin Laden’s still alive?
Well, I guess the question is, why do you believe he’s dead? I think we’re into the longest period we’ve gone without hearing from him, but we’ve done this before. Back in ’05, I think [the length of time we didn’t hear from bin Laden] may have been a week shorter than [the period of his silence] now. So, yeah, we haven’t heard from him [since spring 2006]. People are starting to say, “He’s dead. He’s dead.” Quite frankly, we think that if he had died it would have become known. It would be very hard to keep that from leaking out.
Also, there are periodic rumors about him suffering from this disease or that disease, needing dialysis, having to get some exotic drug. Is any of that credible?
The short answer is, we don’t know. There are those sporadic reports indicating illness, indicating incapacitation, but nothing firm.
Ayman al-Zawahiri seems to have much more freedom of expression, as it were, which implies more freedom of movement. His tapes now are reasonably well produced.
We saw almost a 300-percent increase in media stuff in 2006 out of all of Al Qaeda, and I think this year we are heading toward that mark already, or getting ahead of that. They are becoming more sophisticated. They are not relying on Al Jazeera or you folks to get the message out. They are using the Internet. They’ve got a fairly well-oiled, if you will, media group. They are doing things like going after a different audience or going after a larger audience, by using subtitles.
English-language…
German, Italian, a number of different things. So they have become more sophisticated.
So they actually upload this stuff on the Internet directly?
Well, Ayman al-Zawahiri doesn’t sit there and say, “Press and upload.”…But you know, what you see is sort of a desire to put themselves on the map. So Zawahiri, I think he had 15 videos last year—and he’s almost there [this year]. He’ll certainly get there this year, if not more, but you’re also seeing a broader spectrum of [Qaeda] people talking about subjects. To be crass about it, it kind of reminds me of a CEO in a start-up company in Silicon Valley. What do you want to do? You want your name out there. So you put out press releases. It helps your funding base—in that case, capitalists, in this case, people who fund Al Qaeda.
While we’re on this topic, what can you tell us about Pakistan’s release of Mohammed Naeem Noor Khan, who allegedly was a top Al Qaeda communications and computer guy and is now roaming free?
Obviously, we’re not exactly happy about that. We have a legal system, and the Pakistanis have a legal system, which was designed for a different era. I won’t go into their legal system because I am not an expert on it, but the [Pakistani] Supreme Court said, “You’ve got to release this guy,” and, you know, he’s out for a variety of reasons.
What does the progression of terror cases in Britain tell you? Two years ago terrorists actually managed to kill some people. This year it’s these two clowns in Glasgow. They were doctors and engineers who seemed to have some connection to Pakistan and/or Iraq, yet they couldn’t build a bomb. What does this tell you about the evolution of the organization, the evolution of the front-line terrorists?
It shows you the advantage of having a safe haven—a place where you can take someone and not just say, “Here is the formula. Godspeed and go do something,” but rather, “Let’s [try] it. Let’s make it. Let’s see it go bang.”
Iraq is a giant university for bombmakers.
But, see, they don’t have to [make] it there. They just buy the explosives. It’s HBX or C4. There’s so much explosive material around there.
But if they wanted to teach people, they certainly could.
But you don’t have to make C4. You put a detonator in it with a 99-percent likelihood that sucker is going to go off. And they are very good at that.
Is there evidence, though, that they are training people in Iraq to do operations abroad?
AQI has done—certainly under Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi—“external operations” [in Jordan]. I am not going to comment on the most recent U.K. thing and whether there was a connection.
The Europeans have been concerned about traffic between Iraq and Europe.
There’s always a concern. Frankly, with what is going on inside Iraq right now, it is probably fair to say that Abu Ayyub al-Masri [the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq] pretty much has his hands full, although not completely.
Tell us about the threat that emerged earlier this year.
We’ve got this intelligence threat; we’re pretty certain we know what’s going on. We don’t have all the tactical details about it, [but] in some ways it’s not unlike the U.K. aviation threat last year. So we know there is a threat out there. The question is, what do we do about it? And the response was, we stood up an interagency task force under NCTC leadership. So you have all the players you would expect: FBI, CIA, DHS, DIA, DoD, the operators—the military side comes into that—participating in an integrated plan, but integrated in a much more granular and tactical way than we’ve ever done before. This is my 40th year in government service, 36 in uniform and almost four as a civilian. This is revolutionary stuff, and it is affecting the way we do business.
Earlier this summer, there was talk that people were picking up chatter that reminded them of the summer before 9/11. The Germans basically said this is like pre-9/11. They said, “We are very worried.” What do you make of this?
We have very strong indicators that Al Qaeda is planning to attack the West and is likely to [try to] attack, and we are pretty sure about that. We know some of the precursors from—
Attack Europe?
Well, they would like to come West, and they would like to come as far West as they can. What we don’t know is…if it’s going to be Mark Hosenball, and he’s coming in on Flight 727 out of Karachi, he’s stopping in Frankfurt, and he’s coming on through with his European Union passport, and he’s coming into New York, and he’s going to do something. I mean, we don’t have that kind of tactical detail. What we do have, though, is a couple of threads that indicate, you know, some very tactical stuff, and that’s what—you know, that’s what you’re seeing bits and pieces of, and I really can’t go much more into it.
But this did not affect our threat level. We didn’t change our code.
We’re pretty high-threat right now. Until you know something that is going to make a difference, you know, you don’t necessarily change the threat level. What that does is really stir a lot of people up and get them ticked off, but it probably doesn’t accomplish very much.
And you don’t as of today see any particular reduction in that threat?
It’s still there. It’s very serious, you know, and we’re watching it. We’re learning more all the time, but it’s still a very serious threat.
Last thing: Are we winning or losing the war on terrorism?
This is a long war. People say, “What is this like?” I say it’s like the cold war in only two respects. Number one, there is a strong ideological content to it. Number two, it is going to be a long war. I’ll be dead before this one is over. We will probably lose a battle or two along the way. We have to prepare for that. Statistically, you can’t bat 1.000 forever, but we haven’t been hit for six years, [which is] no accident.
I will tell you this: We are better prepared today for the war on terror than at any time in our history. We have done an incredible amount of things since 9/11, across the board. Intelligence is better. They are sharing it better. We are taking the terrorists down. We are working with the allies very carefully. We are doing the strategic operational planning, going after every element in the terrorist life cycle. So we have come a long way. But these guys are smart. They are determined. They are patient. So over time we are going to lose a battle or two. We are going to get hit again, you know, but you’ve got to have the stick-to-itiveness or persistence to outlast it.
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Nothing is set in stone, but we should be prepared nonetheless. No doubt that being in Iraq and Afghanistan makes it more difficult for them to attack us.
August 28th, 2007 at 4:44 amIn an interview at his headquarters near Washington, D.C., Redd told Newsweek’s Mark Hosenball and Jeffrey Bartholet that the country is better prepared than ever to counter such threats. But he also believes another successful terror attack on the U.S. homeland is inevitable.
Yeah and if AQ succeeds in an attack against us, Americans should be prepared to start fighting at their level and throw out the Rules of Engagement!!!! That is the only thing keeping us from kicking the shit out of these guys and be done with it!!! If we were allowed to fight like in yester years this shit would of been stopped a long time ago!!!
August 28th, 2007 at 4:54 am“This is a long war. People say, “What is this like?” I say it’s like the cold war in only two respects. Number one, there is a strong ideological content to it. Number two, it is going to be a long war. I’ll be dead before this one is over. We will probably lose a battle or two along the way. We have to prepare for that. Statistically, you can’t bat 1.000 forever, but we haven’t been hit for six years, [which is] no accident.”
I remember when this whole war began. President Bush said in one of the very first statements when it all began that there would be things happening that we would not know (for security reasons, etc.) until long after the war has ended. This will be a long war. There is much we do not know and I am sure once it is safe to do so the public will be informed about many things.
I also believe that it is not by accident that we have not suffered any losses here at home, as of yet, due to the work of all the agencies, military, and people working to ensure that another 9-11 does not happen. With an enemy that has shown to be very patient in planning attacks and waiting for precise moments to act in order to be successful there is no doubt in my mind that no matter how good our intel is there will be a time when they will be able to strike and do some major damage. It is unwise to feel completely insulated and secure. That is a feeling that I lost while I watched those planes strike the Twin Towers. The U.S. is not the same and unfortunately as much as people want to go back in time - we cannot afford to ever be that comfortable again.
August 28th, 2007 at 5:17 amDamn sad that innocent Americans have to die in another attack before the likes of Reid, Murtha and Pelosi shut the fuck up and let our military do what has to be done.
August 28th, 2007 at 5:17 amjam;
August 28th, 2007 at 5:46 amWhat makes you think that will shut them up? It will be spun as a consequence of all the excellent training in Iraq the AQ et al is so happy the US is providing them. Didn’t you know?
From what Reid, Murtha and Pelosi and all their supporters have demonstrated, I do not believe that even another successful attack in the U.S. would change their warped perspective.
They will blame Bu$h and they will blame the very country that provides for them and the men and women doing the work to do so. All of those people frighten me more that the terrorists. They can and will do more damage to this country and will never see their own hand in any of the blame.
August 28th, 2007 at 5:56 amBrian and Sandy are probably right about the traitors’ attitudes, but if enough American people get pissed, nobody will be listening to the maggots.
August 28th, 2007 at 6:07 amThe likes of Reid, Murtha and Pelsoi will never shut up, they still think they are the power in this country, and that all they have to do is convince the rest of us that having open dialogue with terrorists will make them happy with us, and avoid further attacks, even though these same people have been adamant about stating that they want to see us and our allies defeated, and that according to their religion, lying and deceiving non-muslims is acceptable. Of course Reid, Pelosi and Co. think they are so damned smart that they wouldn’t get suckered in by terrorists, even though they were numerous times during the Clinton years.
August 28th, 2007 at 6:54 amAnd in all those six years we still don’t have sufficient or any HUMINT on the ground.
No doubt AQ has been planning another hit on us…nothing new in that revelation.
And if they do succeed, the MSM media and the Dhims along the Beltway will spin it ad nauseum.
Pointing fingers in this kind of war only helps our enemies.
However, the Dhims are still studying Howard Zinn instead of studying Woods or Spencer.
Truely, the Dhims are unfit for command.
August 28th, 2007 at 8:47 amThere is no way in heaven or hell that the dems win the presidency in 08 if there is even a hint of a terrorist attack on this country. Their attiude and votes on defense leave them in second or third place in that race. They can spin the shit anyway they want to, and it still comes out the same–the Republican party will protect you and the dems will forget you–evidence the USS Cole, Somalia, etc.
August 28th, 2007 at 9:00 amTerrorism is not in their playbook or their vocabulary.
I’ve probably said this before, but if there is another attack on US soil, I’m afraid it will be open season on Muslims or anyone that looks like them. I don’t care if Pelousy thinks she is the most powerful woman in America, her and her ilk will be totally unable to stop the juggernaut should the unfortunate occur. There will be some verrry angry people. I got a taste of that in the days immediately following 9-11, a second 9-11, man that’s scary thinking.
The citizens level of trust in their government, already abysmally low, will evaporate completely. And God have mercy on this nation if that happens.
Just my humble opinion (I really mean that!), but I truly believe there are three things keeping this nightmare from becoming a reality: 1) the efforts of our troops, 2) the efforts of our fine law enforcement officers in the US and 3) the earnest prayers of our citizens to protect our nation.
August 28th, 2007 at 9:13 amKathy Ozanne:
Hear… hear!!!
August 28th, 2007 at 9:38 amReid and Pelousy will shut up when they’re put up on the gallows and hanged for treason. Maybe the new Attorney General will get right on that case. hahahahahahahahhahhsh*t
August 28th, 2007 at 10:00 amyou’ve got all this great overhead stuff and various surveillance things.” I said, “Yeah. I’d trade those for about three great human sources.”
Sorry pal but you already traded in all your human sources for about three whiz-bang surveillance things.
August 28th, 2007 at 10:46 amHe didn’t trade the human resources, Clinton cut the CIA and our intelligence gathering like it was cool back in the 90’s. Just like he cut the military as well, all the while sending us all over the world on these humanitarians. But Clinton will tell you that he did his best to catch Obsama.
August 28th, 2007 at 11:13 amIn Islam one does not compromise but ends either as Victor or Vanquished, such a low-level war is liable to go on forever unless we decide the outcome…That outcome in order to obtain victory must come by force of arms…
I still believe that this war will end in the same way that WWII ended in Japan. The question is how many more years is it going to take, before we finally use our power against the Irhabi apostates?
August 28th, 2007 at 11:37 amthanks dan…here’s one for you
August 28th, 2007 at 1:26 pmI completely agree, Gunny. Let’s make damn sure that nine years from now we won’t be able to cut and paste your words into this forum and replace the “he”s with “she”s…
August 28th, 2007 at 1:43 pmHey Gunny:
We have a saying out here in the hinterlands about the Zipper Skipper: If Osama (OBL) were a piece of ass Klinton would have nailed him.
Semper Fi
August 28th, 2007 at 6:32 pmDtI;
Much too harsh on the HUMINT score; AFAIK almost all of the current kills and captures are direct results of Iraqi tips, and there are reams of documents being captured, leading to “cascade” kills and captures, etc.
As far as deep penetration of terrorist cells and groups, not only is it very tough, it’s best kept very black. Even a hint that specific info is coming thru leads to rapid purges and shuffles of information channels. So no news may be lots of news.
October 24th, 2007 at 11:04 am