The Diyala Awakening
USA Today:
Most of the major tribes in a strategic province northeast of Baghdad have signed agreements to support U.S. and Iraqi forces, a sign the alliance-building initiative that started in Anbar province is spreading.
In Diyala province, tribal leaders representing 20 of the province’s 25 major tribes have signed agreements brokered by the local government, said Army Col. David Sutherland, a brigade commander there.
The shift has led to more tips from citizens and a reduction in violence, the U.S. military says. Weekly attacks in Diyala province have declined from an average of 125 three months ago to 70 last week.
In the past, the U.S. military has touted progress, only to see conditions shift. For example, the bombing of a major Shiite mosque last year set off sectarian warfare and increased the power of Shiite militias.
Initiatives such as those in Anbar and Diyala provinces reflect a U.S. policy shift toward promoting local security agreements, partly because the Shiite-dominated government has failed to create a consensus. U.S. officials are pushing for local agreements in parts of Baghdad, too.
President Bush said Thursday, “As more reconciliation takes place at the local level, you’ll see a more responsive central government.”
In signing the agreements, the tribal leaders have agreed to support Iraqi and U.S. forces and oppose al-Qaeda and Shiite extremists. Most of the tribal leaders have signed on in the past several months.
If the agreements in Diyala province hold, the development could be more significant than the shift in Anbar province, a largely Sunni region west of the capital. Bush and the Pentagon have touted the Anbar agreements as a major sign of progress.
Diyala province is strategically important because of its location — between Baghdad and the Iranian border — and its significance to al-Qaeda.
Since being pushed from Anbar province, al-Qaeda declared its intention to establish a caliphate, or Islamic rule, in Diyala province, said Maj. Gen Benjamin Mixon, commander of Multi-National Division North, which includes Diyala. The province is among the top three in terms of enemy activity, according to the Pentagon’s quarterly report to Congress released Monday.
Unlike Anbar province, which is predominately Sunni, Diyala is mixed. Of the 20 tribes that have signed, 11 are Sunni Arab, six are Shiite Arab and three are Kurdish, the U.S. military said. The 20 tribes represent about half the province’s 1.6 million population.
“The most important piece of it is understanding who the important people are of influence,” Sutherland said.
The military has little choice but to deal with tribes, since they are a critical part of Iraqi society, said Michael Eisenstadt, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Army reserve officer. “We have to deal with these formal power structures,” he said.
However, the policy carries risks, he said. For example, it could be seen as favoring one tribe over another. “You risk getting sucked into tribal conflicts and vendettas,” he said.
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Seems to me…that what Iraq is lacking is a conscience and a soul. If those two elements were present in the average Iraqi, this would be alot easier.
However, Iraq is what it is. Partly urban partly western. partly tribal, mostly Muslim.
I still say that the Ottoman model in Iraq is better. It takes into account tribal cultural and religious divisions better than the British model does.
Kudos to the troops and their commanders. God Bless them all. Inshallah to all our new Iraqi friends.
September 21st, 2007 at 5:38 pmAre we (Military) mot starting to put together a new government ourselves by aligning these tribes to work together… and thereby understanding their sectarian differences so as to help thread their unity in the future…
September 21st, 2007 at 6:39 pmSddam united Iraq with brutality and repression. Remove that ingredient and now you are faced with a choice? Democracy, which never worked in the past. Or the Ottoman example which did.
We as Americans need to stop looking at Islamic countries through our eyes…and start looking at these countries through their eyes.
It’s high time that the State Department and the War College start teaching classes in Islamic culture and history. And I don’t mean the D’Nesh d’Sousa(d-stored) versions. I mean the Ibn Warriq version.
It’s great that we know how to greet the shieks and are being labeled as more Iraqi than the average Iraqi is. But we still have a long way to go. We need to now study what Islamic forms of governance work and which have failed in Islamic history. Then, we will be 80% of the way done with Iraq. The rest will be up to the Iraqi people, because AQI is a defeated foe.
September 21st, 2007 at 7:58 pmRemember, these people were ruled by a psychopath for decades! Anyone with balls was immediately executed. So, they have devolved to this Mad Max like fractured existance where the only people you can trust is your own tribe. These agreements, and the universal hatred of AQ may be the first step in a long process back to humanity. Unless we go crazy and elect a Democrat President….
September 21st, 2007 at 8:32 pmDTI;
Diyala is not all of Iraq, either. There are large urban populations that barely know their own sheikhs, and mostly couldn’t care less. They are just as distrustful of having tribal organizations imposed as religious, and are just fine with the idea of elected representation.
The Ottoman/tribal model does not extrapolate well into the future. The power-balancing mechanisms are too elaborate and inclined to quick resort to violence.
September 22nd, 2007 at 1:12 amWhatever works in the short time: if tribal alliances are the go today then bear with it.If the urban dwellers are not ofay with this then check with them in their urban scenario. We( the coalition)have got to a point where MOST of the iraqis are able to live with the fact that we are not really an occuping force and that we are there to HELP them merge into a real life nation.
This nation may not be a (l)iberal democracy but it will certainly be better that what they have evolved from.
When the day arrives that the coalition leaves, I sincerely wish that the Iraqi people are safer, under governance that precludes killing as the first resort of the law and that the diversity of the population is secured so that sunni, shia, kurds, christians and any sect has peace and mobility in front of the prevailing system of law.
This scenario is beholden apon a truly democratic government, which is what we the coalition are trying to establish, leaving the nitty gritty to the elected members of the new Iraqi government. We can only hope.
If the US administration had only done what McArthur did in Japan (19460, when the system of government was set down and the Japanese were invited to choose their leaders.
September 22nd, 2007 at 3:43 amThat would have been a much smarter move.
Just an aussie thought.
The Ottaman model had one thing that the current model doesn’t have: A strong and ruthless ruler. Iraqis themselves have said that they need adult supervision. That’s a no shit sherlock admission on their part.
For Iraq to get past their mad max syndrome, they’re going to need Saddam-lite or a Caliphe-lite leader. The current leadership isn’t strong enough to bring Iraq where it needs to be.
And Iraq needs to stop listening to nambie-pambie westerners and apply Iraqi standards to Iraqi criminals.
No slack for Irahiis like mookie and AQI or any other criminal elements irrespective of tribe or alegiences.
The Ottoman example considers religious divisions of the country…which the current model does not.
Once again, too many westerners trying to solve Islamic problems with a western solution. Doesn’t work.
Military force has worked well. Saddam and his evil regime is gone. Huge plus. AQI is defeated. Another plus. Political solution….totally weak….
September 22nd, 2007 at 5:42 amAny society with Islam at it’s core has no heart or soul. It is a false religion based on the writings of a false prophet who like to bugger little children and goats. There can never be real democracy, ala USA’s, in a muslim-dominated country. Turkey is as close as it gets but look what they did recently by electing a hard-line islamist. They will descend into the abyss of terrorism soon.
September 22nd, 2007 at 8:16 am