Why Hillary Will Say No To Obama
Politico:
If Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination — and she certainly may not — her first and most important decision will be her choice of a running mate.
While the choice will be hers alone, there will be enormous pressure on her within the Democratic Party to choose Barack Obama.
It would be a unifying decision, and parties always seek unity after divisive primary battles.
Putting Obama on the ticket also would be historic in that there has never been a black vice presidential nominee. It would also be fitting in that African-Americans are the most loyal voters that the Democrats have, and no Democrat can get elected to the presidency without an overwhelming black vote.
Putting Obama on the ticket might also make possible the winning of some Southern states that have large numbers of black voters but have gone Republican in the past. (The John Kerry-John Edwards ticket did not carry a single Southern state in 2004, even though Edwards was born in South Carolina and had represented North Carolina in the Senate.)
Obama said recently: “I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I’m the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum.” He said he could carry Mississippi and Georgia and put South Carolina in play.
While Obama was talking about what would happen if he were the nominee, even as No. 2 on the ticket, he might reasonably be expected to increase black turnout in key states.
Of course, Obama might not want to be vice president. But if he does, denying him a spot on the ticket might be very tough to do if he finishes a strong second in the primaries and caucuses.
People forget how much Jesse Jackson wanted to be on the ticket with Michael Dukakis in 1988, a ticket Jackson believed would go on to victory. (Dukakis left the Democratic Convention in Atlanta up 17 percentage points in the polls.)
As Jackson never stopped reminding people, he came in second in the primaries in 1988, getting 7 million votes to Dukakis’ 9 million. The No. 2 spot was something Jackson believed he deserved, and when it became clear Dukakis was not going to put him on the ticket, Jackson even considered a floor fight to gain the vice presidential nomination.
“If I had made the vice presidency this showdown issue, I would have prevailed,” Jackson told me afterward. “But that would have split the party right down the middle based upon race. Everybody knew I had earned it. And yet it was a moment to be magnanimous.”
Jackson concluded: “By 1992, having me, if I were to run again, or another African-American on that ticket, is like a reasonable expectation. That won’t even be radical by ’92.”
Uh, yeah.
It certainly would be easier to put Obama on the ticket in 2008 than it would have been to put Jackson on the ticket in 1988. Jackson was a highly controversial figure who had never held elective office. Obama is a U.S. senator and former state legislator and is viewed by many as a uniter, not a divider.
So why wouldn’t Hillary put Obama on the ticket?
There are two unbreakable rules for picking a running mate: Never pick anybody who might overshadow the top of the ticket, and never pick anybody you cannot completely control.
So Obama might be eliminated on both counts.
Then there is the Rule of Firsts. The Clinton campaign does not want to force too many “firsts” on the American electorate.
Electing the first woman president will be challenge enough. Electing the first woman president and first African-American vice president at the same time? Forget it; they don’t need that kind of problem. (The same reasoning might prevent New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who is Hispanic, from getting the vice presidential nod.)
Does this mean that only white males need apply to become Hillary’s running mate? Probably.
Which is why Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, former Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa, Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, Sen. James Webb of Virginia, and even former Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri are all having their names tossed around.
Obama has a solution to this problem: He could win the nomination.
And then he could tell Hillary why it might be too risky to have a woman on the ticket.
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Hilary would be patently stupid not to nominate Obama. White guilt liberals and minorities would trip over themselves to vote that ticket. Plus, it helps put Obama in a position to be elected prez thus helping the long term electability for the Dems.
I have not been the least bit impressed with the Dems strategy for 08. Slick Willy was elected because he could play the centrist bit. 06 was won by moderate dems. Kissing the ass of the anti-war moonbats and promising big government takeover of health car is bad strategy.
Lets hope it continues.
September 27th, 2007 at 11:35 pmI have fifty bucks with most of my friends (who will take the bet) hillary gets the presidential nomination.
The dems are so infatuated with her husband still, they will do anything to get him back in power.
I say no one votes for her for the obvious reasons (flip flopping, universal healthcare, lack of personality) but also because if she were to get elected, that could be potentially twenty eight years of two families running the US. That sounds like a monarchy more than a democracy.
I hope she gets it too. Not because I want the money (although that would be a sweet benny) but because women hate her so much they would turn out in droves to vote against her. And its just way to easy to point out her flaws.
I think even McCain could beat her. Rudy, would pummel her into the ground.
September 28th, 2007 at 12:08 amThe Hildabeast will choose someone who licks her boots. Likely, it will be another woman. She is NOT the politician that the zipper skipper was; which is why she will get trounced in the general election.
September 28th, 2007 at 5:38 amTwo speculations. One from Rush, one of my own.
First–Rush speculated it is possible and legal for Hillary to choose Bill as her VP running mate.
Second–my own speculation, an unfortunate double edged sword. I think Obama will get picked or a deal cut with Hillary like, “pick Obama or no nomination” et al. White guilt liberals nationwide are dreaming of the ultimate diverse ticket. The only thing that would make it better would be if one of them were gay or into bondage. Obama isn’t but we all know Hillary has always been questionable–perhaps water-boarding DeeDee Meyers could lend us an answer?
While they speculate the two,esp. Obama would draw the black vote, he may be two white, and there is massive apathy among African American Blacks (a generalization) for instance–Jena Six. Unreported in the press–no local AfAms answered jury duty, a civic responsibility one would expect from an ethnic group in support of one of their own. Granted–there are 12 other states aside from LA.
However there is my double edged sword opinion regarding an AfAm running mate from either side. There are still millions of ‘old school’ democrats in the South who under no circumstances would vote for an AfAm. Great–it works in the Conservative favor, but on the flip side if an individual like Rice ran, the same may be true. That is too bad.
Things are better than they were thirty years ago, but people are judged less on the basis’ of their merit than the color of their skin. I’d follow Rice into hell but wouldn’t get within ten feet of Obama.
Before I knew aything about Kerry, I heard he was a VN vet and I told myself I’d listen. I didn’t listen long. Before I knew anything about Obama, I told myself, “This guy is sharp looking, articulate, educated, a constitutional lawyer et al, I’m going to listen to what he says.”
Well Obama opened his mouth finally and “we” are still unsure of him having ever been a Muslim, his current church is suspect, and the military men/women, Pakistan et al are none to pleased with his foreign policy gaffs.
Case closed.
September 28th, 2007 at 7:16 amSo, because Obama is black he believes 30% more black voters will show up to vote for him?
October 8th, 2007 at 10:55 am