Bush And Putin Rough Out Breakthrough Strategic Deal For Dumping Iran
Do ya think he still has KGB blood? Can we trust him?
The first hint that a strategic deal was brewing was dropped by Russian President Vladimir Putin. At a news conference in Tehran last week, he alluded to a shift in the controversy with Washington which might settle his dispute with President George W. Bush on the US missile shield in East Europe.
His comment went largely unnoticed - except by officials in Tehran, who noted his reference to a possible understanding with the Americans – though not with Iran.
Then, on Monday, Oct. 22, Bush and Putin talked at length on the phone and made further progress towards an understanding.
The outline of the American role in the deal surfaced in Prague Tuesday, Oct. 23, when US secretary of defense Robert Gates suggested a possible delay in activating the proposed US missile interceptor project in Poland and radar station in the Czech Republic - until an Iranian threat was “definitely proved.”
Gates articulated this concession for allaying Moscow’s strong opposition after he held talks with Czech prime minister Mirek Topolanek. Gates added that the US would proceed with plans to build the sites, but possibly wait before putting them in working order.
“We would consider tying together activation of the sites in Poland and the Czech Republic with definitive proof of the threat — in other words, Iranian missile testing and so on,” Gates said.
The proposal has already been presented to the Russians who have expressed interest. Gates described a related proposal that might mean permitting a Russian presence at US missile defense bases, including at the Polish and Czech sites.
US president George Bush spoke a short while later at the National Defense University in Washington. He said the US-led missile defense system in Europe is urgent, but spoke positively about Putin’s offer of missile defense facilities in Azerbaijan and southern Russia. The entire project, said the US president, is “part of a broader effort to move beyond the Cold War” that could lead to “an unprecedented level of strategic cooperation” between Russia and the United States.” He referred to Iran as “an emerging threat that affects us all.”
The Pentagon wants to install 10 interceptor rockets in Poland, linked to tracking radar in the Czech Republic and to other elements of the missile defense system based in the United States.
Bush’s words and the plan outlined by Gates represent a major US concession to Russia and a triumph for Putin’s dogged opposition to the deployment of US missile defense bases in two former Warsaw Treaty nations. The Bush administration can also congratulate itself on bringing the Russian leader round to admitting that Iranian missiles are a threat to Europe; its corollary - the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is a threat to the world.
As long as the deal is not wrapped up between the two world readers, DEBKAfile’s Washington and Moscow sources say these key questions remain open:
How far will Putin go in his support for an American clampdown on Iran? Will tough sanctions by the UN Security Council and the world community be his limit? And what if Iran continues to defiantly press ahead with its nuclear weapons program in the face of a military showdown with the United States? Will Russia then look away?
The Bush-Putin deal is still in the making. Some answers may be forthcoming in the weeks ahead.
DEBKAfile
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Of course it would all be a lot simpler if Russia just told Iran Nyet, no nukes for you … simple me.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:29 pmWe gotta play this just right, that’s for sure.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:42 pm“The proposal has already been presented to the Russians who have expressed interest. Gates described a related proposal that might mean permitting a Russian presence at US missile defense bases, including at the Polish and Czech sites.”
What this will mean is when they get a view of what our technology presents, it will further dismantle any pre concieved notion they had as a rival
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:39 pmPutin is a nationalist. He ran on such and has acted as such since his start. Putin will and seems like just may join our effort when he realizes his nations best interest are with such.
If Putin stays a hard a*s on sanctions REAL sanctions then our hands are tied and its either US or Israel light the fire. Russia cannot directly challenge the US and even suppling the Iranians in a hot war like N Vietnam would be opening Russia to major consequences. Result Russia loses all with Iran disappearing and Russia feels the wrath of US vengeance. Russia wants Iran to threaten the US but not become too strong or even threatening enough were we preempt them either.
Putin is playing a risky game on multiple levels playing all sides against the other while always ensuring to keep the Russian side benefits either way. Bottom line Putin is not ally but definably someone we can deal with as long as we can prove the mutual interest part of the agreement.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:44 pmCan we trust him? The man who wants to bring back the Cold War for the sake of restoring lost prestige? There’s a kind of shocking lack of clarity and vision there.
Putin’s a devious, self-aggrandizing bastard, but he’s not stupid. I’m thinking that in the long run he’d rather have a good relationship with us than a bunch of murderously insane Gotterdammerungen in Tehran. Or perhaps “hoping” is a better term.
October 24th, 2007 at 4:17 amPutin wants to act in the best interest of his nation, not ours and not Iran’s. He has done a bit of rusty saber rattling lately to show that the former superpower is still a power to be dealt with. Fine, stoke his ego a little and then plan to deploy technology that will make his threats meaningless. OK now let’s talk.
Reagan’s Pershing missile deployment was rather effective in dealing with the Soviets.
October 24th, 2007 at 7:24 am