U.S. Death Toll In Iraq Lowest Since Feb ‘04 - 2nd Lowest All-Time
It is now January 1st in Baghdad, and the best stats I can find record 21 U.S. Troop deaths in December of ‘07. If confirmed, that is the second lowest monthly death toll since the war started, the lowest being 20 in February of 2004.
This is a double-edged sword, of course.
On the one hand, there are the friends, families, and loved ones of the 21 who gave their lives in the service of our country, and by this we are deeply saddened, and for their sacrifice and the sacrifice of their loved ones, we are truly grateful. There are no words than can replace the loss to the families, and there are no finer people than those who put on the uniform and serve our country.
21. It’s not zero, but in November of 2004 it was 137. That was when the Marines broke Fallujah.
And I would be willing to bet my life, that if you were to ask those 21 the day before they died, if they knew that this day could be their last, they would immediately say “yes”…and if you were to ask them if they believed in the mission, they would say “yes.”
Every New Year’s Eve I thank God for letting me make it through another year above ground, because I truly should not be alive today, a few times over. That’s no exaggeration either. And for the last few years, on this night, I have been giving thanks to God for those who serve our country, who will not be above ground for the first New Year’s of their lives, so that my kids can live without fear of a crazed jihadi running down our street blowing himself up for his god.
To all our brave service men and women, past and present, thank you, and Happy New Year.
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But the AP likes to accentuate the negative instead:
2007 deadliest for US troops in Iraq
December 31st, 2007 at 8:06 pmhttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071230/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_casualties
According to icasualties.org there were 14 hostile fire deaths and 9 non hostile fire deaths for American soldiers in December 2007. Most non hostile fire deaths are accidents of some sort
January 1st, 2008 at 1:12 amKBoomz;
I think you double-counted; 8 non-hostile, 14 hostile, total 22.
So it’s time to update my semi-annual tallies:
Statistics are very sensitive to start-stop points and so on. So from the data we have, how about a comparison by half-year? Start with either Jan. ‘03 or March ‘03. (Hostile action deaths).
6 months ending:
Calendar | From Onset
2003/06 134 | 2003/08 178
2003/12 189 | 2004/02 196
2004/06 311 | 2004/08 359
2004/12 408 | 2005/02 405
2005/06 309 | 2005/08 333
2005/12 367 | 2006/02 335
2006/06 293 | 2006/08 301
2006/12 410 | 2007/02 463
2007/06 529 | 2007/08 502
2007/12 233 | 2008/02 111 (to date)
Total: 3183 3183
6-mo. Ave: 318.3
Ist half of year averages:
315.2 | 334.6
2nd half of year averages:
321.4 | 302
6-mo averages excluding ‘07:
~303 | ~321
1st half excluding ‘07:
~262 | ~293
2nd half excluding ‘07/’08
~344 | ~350
So: the 1st half of calendar ‘07 exceeded the previous average by ~267. The second half was below the average by ~85, and ~88 below the average of the 2nd halves of the year. Compared to the previous overall 6 mo. average, the 6-mo calender 2nd half of ‘07 is ~111 lower.
For the 6-month periods since onset, there’s time to make up for the final period, but the 1st half of ‘07/08 is ~209 above the previous averages. The second half is 239 below the previous average, with 2 months to make up the difference. If the current total (last 4 months) increases 50%, the total will be ~167, 142 below the previous 2nd half average. If the ~22/month average from Nov-Dec holds, the total will be 155, or 195 below the previous 2nd half year average.
So two alternate predictions come out of this.
If you believe this is a fluke, not a “trend”, you need 239 more fatalities before the end of February to bring the current 6-month averages up to snuff.
If you believe the numbers show a trend, you’d expect about 30 more fatalities by the end of February.
So the differences in predictions are: anti-liberationists had a serious shortfall of 111 deaths for the calendar half-year ending Dec. ‘07.
Anti-liberationists need 239 US combat deaths by the end of February to bring things back on track, and liberationists expect no more than 30, for a difference of 209.
Place yer bets, ladies and gentlebongs!
January 1st, 2008 at 9:02 amCorrection and addendum:
“the 1st half of calendar ‘07 exceeded the previous average by ~267. The second half was below the average by ~85, and ~88 below the overall average of the 2nd halves of the year. Compared to the previous 2nd half 6 mo. average, the 6-mo calender 2nd half of ‘07 was ~111 lower.”
And just to continue the “highest, lowest” theme of Pat’s post:
January 1st, 2008 at 9:19 amthe 2nd half of calendar ‘07 is the lowest since ‘03,
and the 2nd half of ‘07 since onset is on track to be the lowest EVER!
thanks, i was really drunk when i posted that. I think i counted the british fatality when I was trying to focus on American casualties only, but to be honest I don’t remember….. At either rate, I’m hoping on zero next month. Especially zero non hostile casualties, even though accidents do happen.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:05 am