Britain Doubts NIE Report, Thinks Iran Still Making Bomb
“Just because we got it wrong on Iraq, doesn’t mean we’re getting it wrong on Iran”
Guardian:
The British government said yesterday that Tehran could still be developing a nuclear weapon, and called into question a key American intelligence finding that work on building an Iranian bomb had stopped in 2003.
For the first time, a senior British diplomat cast doubt on the US National Intelligence Estimate published last November which reported “with high confidence” that Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme had been halted in autumn 2003. The NIE also judged “with moderate confidence” that the programme had not been restarted.
The intelligence report blocked momentum towards US military action and delayed the passing of a third sanctions resolution against Tehran - a mild version of which was approved this week in an effort to persuade Iran to suspend enrichment of uranium. But the senior British diplomat claimed there was no serious evidence that Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon had halted.
“When the NIE came out many of us were surprised at how emphatic the writers of it were - that all the activity stopped in 2003 and the medium confidence that it had not been resumed,” the diplomat said on condition of anonymity. “I haven’t seen any intelligence that gives me even medium confidence that these programmes haven’t resumed. It’s an uncertain picture.”
The comments appeared to reflect the findings of an independent British assessment of intelligence on Iran’s nuclear programme, completed after the American assessment was published.
The diplomat pointed to evidence against Iran presented in Vienna last week by Olli Heinonen, the chief investigator at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to a summary of the Heinonen meeting obtained by the Guardian, the Finnish investigator presented an organisational chart linking a variety of nuclear weapons projects. A document on the organisation “includes 10 to 15 pages of instructions on how to communicate, setting out in particular rules for correspondence excluding the use of people’s names”. Another document was a report on a weapons project for a period up to January 14 2004, months after the end date suggested in the NIE.
The evidence has been met with scepticism by several members of the IAEA, who point to the debacle over WMD intelligence on Iraq.
The senior British diplomat said, however: “Just because we got it wrong on Iraq doesn’t mean we’re getting it wrong on Iran.”
Heinonen also said IAEA inspectors had not been allowed to question an Iranian defence ministry official, Mohsen Fakrizadeh, who allegedly led the weaponisation effort. Simon Smith, Britain’s representative on the IAEA board, said Heinonen’s evidence was neither new, nor substantiated. But Smith told the Guardian: “The [IAEA investigators] wanted to drive home to the board that this was not a few scraps of paper or overheard conversations. It was a substantial package of evidence.”
That package was dismissed by Iran as either fabricated or irrelevant. Tehran insists it has not attempted to make weapons and is only enriching uranium to generate energy for peaceful purposes. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday rejected calls for further negotiations with the EU’s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, saying his officials would henceforth only talk to IAEA representatives.
The forcefulness of Heinonen’s presentation caused rifts within the IAEA, irritating the agency’s director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, who has sought to defuse international tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Addressing the IAEA board on Monday, ElBaradei said his inspectors had resolved all but one of the unanswered questions over Iran’s nuclear programme, the exception being the weaponisation studies.
However, Smith, speaking on behalf of Britain, Germany and France at the IAEA board yesterday, said Iran’s cooperation had been “abysmal”. “Over a wide range of issues on which the agency asked for clarification the answers are less than satisfactory,” he said.
A sanctions resolution passed by the UN security council on Monday tightened existing measures against Iran, extending a travel ban and assets freeze on individuals and firms linked to the nuclear programme, and added two Iranian banks to an international watch list for involvement in proliferation.
EU officials are due to meet this month to decide whether to go further than the UN resolution in applying punitive measures against Iran.
Heinonen stressed that the IAEA was unable to verify the authenticity of the documents.
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if they so highly doubt it maybe then they’ll attack first or something so we aren’t left to do the world’s dirty work alone. The british would never go out on a limb like that tho.
Plus I think its funny that Iran, a country sitting on a HUGE oil reserve and definitely not concerned with pollution, would even need nuclear power to generate electricity. It is much more expensive and would be extremely inefficient compared to the relative ease of using oil. They are trying to build a bomb and there is no doubt in my mind that once they have it they will use it.
March 5th, 2008 at 8:05 pmA nuclear weapons is not as effective as the slow chipping away of a free society by a methodical and patient foe. China is both of these. Islam is it’s tool of deception.
March 5th, 2008 at 8:10 pmYou know, I don’t TRUST any of those alphabet inspection agencies …
Hell, I have my qualms about trusting the friggin’ CIA anymore (given they’d employ Val Plame/Wilson).
March 5th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
Well of course they are making a freakin bomb. What are you suppose to do? Pretend that they are not?
March 5th, 2008 at 10:04 pmWe do way to much pretending and P.C.ing in the West.
Its like getting really, really old lately.
A few words for you….Sherman Kent, 62 SNIE “Geewwwgle it”
The 62 SNIE left no ambiguity in their assessment that the Soviet Union would place offensive ballistic nuclear missiles in Cuba. The SNIE was published in September, despite HUMINT/SIGINT intelligence of the Soviet Military buildup on in Cuba. Guess what? John McCone, an ant-communist Republican (DCI) was resolutely mistrusted because of his ant-red / Repbublican beliefs. The drafters of SNIE and put the bug in Kennedy’s ear McCone was full of it…despite the SA-2 sites being built following a Soviet style area defense doctrine….yadda yadda yadda and all that.
March 5th, 2008 at 10:45 pmWell duhh. The NIE was put out by a bunch of incompetent BDS infected liberal boobs in the CIA.
Anyone want to trust an organization with people like Plame and Joe (Saddam isnt trying to make a bomb) Wilson.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:54 am“Mohamed ElBaradei …has sought to defuse international tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.” Read: has sought to cover up Iran’s nuclear programme.
He’s compromised up to his eyeballs. And beyond.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:57 amWhere did this picture come from?
Did any of you notice that the bomb has ENGLISH WRITTEN ALL OVER IT!!!!
Notice the picture in the background? This was taken in IRAN!!! How did they get their hands on an American Smart Bomb?????
March 6th, 2008 at 11:50 am