Public Support For Iraq War Soaring
“A development that promises to reshape the political landscape.”
Politico:
American public support for the military effort in Iraq has reached a high point unseen since the summer of 2006, a development that promises to reshape the political landscape.
According to late February polling conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 53 percent of Americans — a slim majority — now believe “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That figure is up from 42 percent in September 2007.
The percentage of those who believe the war in Iraq is going “very well” or “fairly well” is also up, from 30 percent in February 2007 to 48 percent today.
The situation in Iraq remains fluid, of course. A surge in violence or in troop deaths could lead to rapid fluctuations in public opinion. But as the war nears its fifth year, the steady upturn in the public mood stands to alter the dynamics of races up and down the ballot.
The repercussions will be most acutely felt in the presidential contest. Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton remain committed to a staggered pullout, while Republican John McCain holds steadfast in his support for the Bush administration’s military surge.
In recent years, election results have tracked perceptions about the progress of the war in Iraq. The Democratic wave in the 2006 congressional elections correlated to a low point in the public’s view of the war. The resurgence of McCain’s candidacy also tracks the decrease in U.S. fatalities in Iraq. Monthly troop deaths have dropped by about two-thirds since the summer of 2007, according to Department of Defense records.
Democrats’ resolute support for the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces may soon position them at odds with independent voters, in particular, a constituency they need to retake the White House.
Half of self-identified independents polled now believe the United States should “keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized,” according to polling data assembled by Pew at Politico’s request.
Senior foreign policy aides to Clinton and Obama said, in interviews, that their candidates have no intention of reconsidering their pledges to withdraw troops from Iraq, despite the waning of public opposition.
As recently as Tuesday in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Clinton reiterated her pledge to “end the war in Iraq and bring our troops home.” She added, as she has for months, that she would “carefully and responsibly” start the withdrawal of those troops within 60 days of taking office.
“There is no military solution,” Clinton is prone to say, a sentiment echoed by Obama. Obama has also proposed an end date for “removing all combat brigades” from Iraq.
The uptick in public support is a promising sign for Republican candidates who have been bludgeoned over the Bush administration’s war policies. But no candidate stands to gain more than McCain.
“How could Democrats possibly hand McCain a better issue than to let him run on his record of advocating a robust U.S. presence in Iraq with all the positive battlefield news that is filtering out of that country?” asked Michael O’Hanlon, a national security adviser at the Brookings Institution who has been at the center of the Iraq debate since the war’s outset.
“Thinking about where we were at the time of the congressional elections, it’s ironic that the Iraq issue could actually be the one that most favors the Republican and most other issues — including most foreign policy issues — could most favor the Democrats,” O’Hanlon added. “Yet Democrats keep wanting to fight the Iraq debate.”
The positions taken by Obama and Clinton reflect the majority sentiment in their party: seven in 10 Democrats continue to believe the war in Iraq is going poorly. Only about a quarter of Democrats support maintaining troop levels until “the situation has stabilized,” according to Pew polling data.
Views of the war in Iraq have long varied depending upon party affiliation, unlike during the Vietnam War. Although even Democratic discontent has ebbed for the first time in more than a year — 29 percent now support keeping troops in, an increase of eight percentage points since last summer — foreign policy advisors to both candidates dispute the idea that Democrats are in the unenviable position of disagreeing with the majority of Americans over whether the war in Iraq can succeed.
“We have seen at great cost here that the surge has resulted in a reduction of violence. That’s indisputable,” said a top Obama foreign policy adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “But we have not seen any of the political progress that will be necessary to have that long-term stability.
“[Obama] believes the best way to induce change is to have this strategic redeployment,” the adviser added.
While Democrats increasingly constitute the bulk of voters who support the withdrawal of troops, the public shift of opinion overall has been dramatic. As many voters now believe that the war is going “well” as “not well” — 48 percent each, according to Pew.
Pew also found that 49 percent favor bringing the troops home as soon as possible while 47 percent say the troops should stay in until the situation stabilizes — statistical parity between the two positions.
Late February polling conducted by CBS News has also shown that the public view of the war is better than at any point since August 2006. CBS recently found that 43 percent of the country believes the war is going “well” — less than Pew found but still double the level of last June.
Democrats remain in step with the public mood on the question of the decision to go to war. Pew and CBS have found that a majority of Americans, including independents, continue to believe that the choice to wage war with Iraq was “wrong” — a figure that has held for years.
McCain is betting, however, that the public will view the war through a forward-looking lens. For months, he has argued that Democrats intend to “retreat” in Iraq and ensure failure.
The public may soon come to view that as “a correct narrative,” said O’Hanlon, a Democrat whose views on the war have made him the bête noire of many in the antiwar liberal base.
Perhaps as a result of the uptick in support for the war or his own military record, McCain is well-positioned to retake the party’s traditional advantage on national security issues.
Almost half of registered voters now believe it is “very likely” that McCain would be an “effective commander in chief,” according to CBS polling. Less than one-quarter said the same of Obama and Clinton.
In addition, CBS found that a clear majority of Americans were “confident” that McCain could “handle an international crisis” — 56 percent said so for McCain, 47 percent for Obama and only 39 percent for Clinton.
The McCain campaign has signaled plans to continue highlighting his differences with Democrats over Iraq policy. Meanwhile, Democrats plan to continue to frame McCain as a central player in the president’s Iraq policy who is likely to continue in the same direction.
“Sen. McCain is clearly going to try to depict the Democrat, whoever it is, as cut and run,” the Clinton advisor said. “And Sen. Clinton, or whoever is the Democratic nominee, is clearly going to try to depict Sen. McCain as one who would stay there for centuries.”
For the time being, however, McCain can claim that roughly half of the public does not support a troop withdrawal — a first since the 2008 presidential race began.
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Ooh-rah, and McCain will keep us on that track!
March 12th, 2008 at 9:57 pm“No military solution” with the Revolutioinary War, War of 1812, Civil War, Barbary Pirates, Spainish-American War, Phillipines, Japan, Germany, Korea, Panama, Granada, Kosovo. Then along came the commu, I mean democrats and they made sure Vietnam was turned over to the communists. They’re beside themselves with seethe because it looks as though the US is succeeding in Iraq and they may not be able to turn it over to the islamofacists.
There’s a clown that is on a two hour Saturday morning talk show in Philadelphia. The guy that sits across the table is normal. The clown is still into the blatant lie about 600,000 Iraqi civilians killed. Hopefully the normal guy will bring this up Saturday, but, he’ll have to do it in the first half because of the clown I can only deal with a half hour. He’s one of those urban educators, psychologists, or something like that.
March 12th, 2008 at 10:24 pmMy support has been riding the Thermals created by our Troops successes from day 1… So what’s the publics problem? Were they listening to too much Pelosi and Murtha? If you can spell Google you can find the facts America! Just remember to go to the 3rd page of search results so that you don’t have to read through the Conspiracy sites and you’ll arrive at the truth!
March 13th, 2008 at 12:48 amLove that pic
and I think it’s because things are finally starting to stabilize. I hope things will get better.
March 13th, 2008 at 2:37 amI can’t find this story anywhere else, why is that?
March 13th, 2008 at 4:06 amPeace through strength my friends, peace through strength.
Dam, just noticed. Of those places where “no military solution” was necessary, I forgot to mention the Persian Gulf War. Sorry.
March 13th, 2008 at 5:24 amThe mortal sin in all of this is the squelching of this news in the MSM that IS supposed to be giving us, the “trusting” public, the WHOLE story … which they have failed miserably at.
The above picture:
The American trooper, although armed and highly dangerous, IS NOT a threat to the children venturing out of the doorway … and they have come to realize and believe that. In the last few years we have had to primarily convince these people WE do not have any ulterior motives for them except that they are free to think for themselves, build their lives as best they can, and be able to consider each other as friends.
Oddly, when I saw that picture this picture immediately popped into my mind beside it (with NO fault to the man holding the gun who was given the order to carry out without question):
http://www.athousandandone.com/photos/0/448a07d7cb24f_s.jpg
March 13th, 2008 at 6:04 am@drillanwr
spot on. The Dem’s have taken their position and entrenched themselves in it. They will be seen as the “chicken littles” they are come election time. They cannot see the forest for the trees, they lick their finger, stick it in the air, and pander. Their willing accomplises in the MSM light the fire and fan the flames. Anyone with an ounce of sense and perception can see this. Those who willingly let themselves be spoonfed by the MSM every night are the easily manipulated, intellectually lazy fools. With the proliferation of info and media outlets available today, any citizen w/10 minutes and a computer can usually get more info than the 20 minutes of regurgitated pablum offered by ABC,NBC,CBS, and those morons @ PBS.
March 13th, 2008 at 6:53 amThe Demo/Leftie/Commie lovers better get on the stick if they want to lose this WOT. These look like MSM polls so they are heavily manipulated and they still show a huge acceleration in positive views aon IRAQ…add 10% to the numbers for justcause and we gat an increasing majority!
March 13th, 2008 at 6:57 amIf the RatB Fight goes to the convention, even McCain can get elected and may have a majority R in congress to keep McCain honest!!
I’ve always said that an American’s reasons to support a war are more based on the liklihood of success than the true importance of the mission. As General Patton said in his speech before the launch of Operation Overlord:
“Americans love a winner. Americans will not tolerate a loser. Americans despise cowards. Americans play to win all of the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Americans have never lost nor will ever lose a war; for the very idea of losing is hateful to an American.” -Patton
I honestly believe that the 76% of Americans that felt it was necessary to go to Iraq in the first place also believe, deep down, that it is important to achieve victory. Americans hated having no great final plan for the occupation and quickly turned against the war when we didn’t show them a decisive victory. Americans don’t like to be on the bandwagon when things go poorly. Just like in sports arenas across the country…its always easy to get tickets when the team is a loser. With things in Iraq taking a turn for the better about 6 months ago, I knew it was only a matter of time for American public opinion to catch up. Now we need to keep going so we can defeat these jihadi fucks because thats what the American people really want. They just want it done in a way that guarantees success.
ps. I think its bs that theres so much bandwagoning. this is something worth fighting for and should be supported at all times, but this bandwagoning is clearly happening within our society.
March 13th, 2008 at 7:14 amThe dems are in such a world of hurt right now. Tearing eachothers’ hair out over whether Billary is going to steal the nomination. Plus, now, the public, since we changed our strategy to a winning one, is supporting the effort in Iraq. And, although the media NEVER says that Spitzer is a DEM, they have him to remind them of what bad judgment certain egotistical dems have when they get in power (remember Bill?).
March 13th, 2008 at 8:10 am
No kidding!? You mean people feel as if they are being protected?
March 13th, 2008 at 8:28 amThe MSM would never let you feel like that. All doom and gloom with those yahoos.
God bless our troops.
All i can say is, welcome aboard finally! assholes.
Some of us have supported and believed in the mission all along. in sports they call those people who only support a winner a “fair weather” fan. Unfortunately with a countrys military your support actually helps them. Sure im happy that more people are onboard with victory, better late than never but i still have way more respect for those who have been there all along
March 13th, 2008 at 8:34 amKurt(the infidel)
Some of us have supported and believed in the mission all along. in sports they call those people who only support a winner a “fair weather” fan.
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Very well said.
March 13th, 2008 at 8:57 amKurt -
I often go over the numbers.
3.13.08 roughly 304,000,000 (rounded)
Less than 1% whom bares the burden of defending them.
Something seriously wrong with that picture.
March 13th, 2008 at 11:08 amUS Military teaches freedom and liberty again. Fine Job Gentlemen.
I was hoping and praying that the Democrats wouldn’t give victory away. I believe that they would kill their own mother to win an election.
March 13th, 2008 at 11:21 amHey Mike in CA,
It’s not “Peace through strength my friends, peace through strength.” but:
Peace through superior firepower…
March 13th, 2008 at 1:11 pmAnyone in the Bay area — Would you please post this story in the window of the Bezerkeley recruiting office?
March 13th, 2008 at 3:25 pm