Could Israel Use Submarines To Nuke Iran And It’s Nuclear Facilities?
HAIFA, Israel (Reuters) - Anticipating a showdown with Iran, Israel decides secretly to deploy a submarine off its arch-foe’s coast.
But how? The quickest route from Israel’s Mediterranean coast is via the Suez Canal, which runs through Egypt and which the classified vessels shun. So the submarine is hidden in the belly of a commercial tanker, which delivers it to the Gulf.
Such is the plot of an Israeli thriller, “Undersea Diplomacy.” Does it hold water? Perhaps not. Then again, the author, Shlomo Erell, is no mere novelist. He’s an ex-admiral with experience in Israel’s most sensitive military planning.
“It’s pure fiction, but it’s informed fiction,” he said simply, when asked if his book reflects how the Israeli fleet of Dolphin-class submarines could be used against Iran, whose leadership has called for Israel to be “wiped off the map,” stoking international concern over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Israel has three Dolphins, with two more on order from Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft, a German shipyard custom-building them at a steep discount as part of Berlin’s bid to shore up a Jewish state founded in the wake of the Nazi Holocaust.
The submarines are a subject of deepest secrecy given speculation that they carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.
Many analysts believe the Dolphins are Israel’s “second strike” weapons, referring to the Cold War theory that a country can deter foes from launching nuclear attacks by maintaining the ability to retaliate, even after its own territory has been laid waste. A nuclear “platform” out at sea is the best guarantee.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, and independent experts say it is years away from any such capability. Some, in turn, think Israel’s expanding submarine fleet may be part of preparations to foil the perceived future threat through force.
“There is nothing on the horizon to suggest Iran would have the capability to knock out Israel’s nuclear delivery means,” said Sam Gardiner, a retired U.S. air force colonel who stages Middle East war games for U.S. government and private clients.
The Dolphins, he said, may be part of “a conventional capability to deal with the number of targets Israel believes would need to be struck in a conventional preemptive attack.”
DISTANCE NO OBJECT?
Israel sent jets to bomb Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and has hinted it could do the same against Iranian facilities if U.S.-led diplomatic pressure failed to rein in Tehran’s plans.
But the Iraqi raid was on a single site, relatively close to Israel’s borders. Targets in Iran might be too numerous and distant for Israel’s air force, especially as intermediate Arab states or Turkey would likely refuse overflight rights.
Israel is assumed to have ballistic missiles, yet its small size may make surprise launches impossible: an unannounced missile test in January became news within minutes as the startled residents of nearby towns reported the roaring takeoff.
Submarines could bridge the gap, especially if positioned in Iranian waters. That possibility has given rise to speculation that Israel wants five Dolphins in order to allow for at least one to be at sea at all times while others are being serviced.
The question remains of how far they might travel.
Israeli navy sources say the Dolphins do not use the Suez — to avoid being inspected by Egyptian harbormasters. That means that, to reach the Gulf, Israel would either have to resort to fantastical ruses like the one in “Undersea Diplomacy,” or send the submarines around Africa — a month-long trip at least.
Jason Alderwick, a maritime analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, is skeptical.
“I don’t buy the idea of a rotation. These submarines have not been purchased with a view to operating in the Gulf,” he said. As Dolphins run on conventional rather than nuclear power so require regular refueling and shore maintenance, he described them as better suited to close Mediterranean missions.
Israel also has access to the Red Sea through Eilat port. But navy sources said there was no plan to dock submarines there because the narrow Red Sea, which is shared with several Arab states, is vulnerable to blockades at the Straits of Tiran.
DETERRENTS NEVER USED
Restricted to the Mediterranean, analysts point out, the Israeli Dolphins could pose a “second-strike” threat to Iran only if they carried nuclear cruise missiles capable of hitting targets as far as 1,500 km (970 miles) away.
Lee Willett of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies noted that Dolphins lacked the vertical tubes used by much bigger Western and Soviet-era submarines to launch ballistic missiles.
Cold War tests showed nuclear warheads are too heavy to be delivered long distances on cruise missiles, so Israel could hit Iran only with conventional warheads if they were fired from the Mediterranean, he said.
A nuclear attack on Iran by a Dolphin, Willett argued, would have to be from the Gulf, which in turn would give away an unsupported submarine’s position and probably doom it to being destroyed by surviving Iranian forces.
“The whole point of a deterrent is that it’s never used,” Willett said. “In designing the Dolphins as a second-strike platform, I imagine the Israelis were thinking ‘it’s not ideal, but it’s the best we’ve got’.”
Israel does not discuss its nuclear capabilities, under an “ambiguity” policy billed as warding off regional enemies while avoiding the kind of provocations that can trigger arms races.
Erell appeared to support such thinking. The message of his book — which made a modest splash in Israel, and is currently available only in Hebrew — was “how to use a submarine without resorting to war.” “It’s about affecting statecraft,” he said.
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Great idea fellows. Nuke that Little Hitler bastard
April 18th, 2008 at 7:35 pmThe Israelis are masters of adapting proven technologies to their needs. One thing the Israelis proved with the raid on Syria and Entebbe, is that they know how to get ‘er done when the chips are stacked against them.
Shalu Shlom Yerushalayim
April 18th, 2008 at 8:07 pmYeah the Israelis are very smart and also well proven in battle. I would bet a billion dollars they have plans in place, and possibly this plan. pretty damn smart really. smuggle submarines in a ship until you get into open water.
April 18th, 2008 at 8:41 pmIt’s more than possible, it’s likely but suicidal religious fanatics aren’t worried about retaliatory measures very much anyway.
April 18th, 2008 at 9:10 pmSure, why not?
April 18th, 2008 at 10:07 pmAnyone else find it ironic that the Israelis are getting their submarines built by the Germans…
How the world turns.
April 19th, 2008 at 1:40 am“Could Israel use submarine to nuke Iran and its’ nuclear facilities?” Iran does not have nuclear bomb. Iran’s nuclear fuel activities are under IAEA active and passive monitoring techniques. Iran is a member of NPT. Israel has nuclear bomb and submarines armed with nuclear bombs.
I am a bit surprised by the responses to the article: “Nuke that Little Hitler bastard” SOC said. “Sure why not?” Marc Stockwell-Moniz said. The other responded by how good Israel was in killing fields.
Iran has not attacked any country, not occupied any country for just about over 250 years. It has been attacked, colonized and has been one step away from being canablized!
Could we stop and ask: Have we not killed enough people this last 100 years in two world wars, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq first war (Persian Gulf War), Lebanon and Israel-Arabs war, and now once more in Iraq? You may not like president of Iran, but he has not killed anyone. Can you say that about Israeli leaders?
Ask: Where does Israel buys her oil? Iran. Who owes over $2,000,000,000 to Iran? Israel. In the Middle East Israel needs Iran. A large fraction of Israeli population was born in Iran, or are descendents of Iranian parents.
Stop! Cool down. Think! You don’t want killing any more. We have killed enough!
April 19th, 2008 at 5:36 am
StM Traveler
April 19th, 2008 at 9:18 amGo back to Daily Kos or whatever the freak it is called.
And on the way tell your buddies in Iran to stop threatening Israel.
Then Israel will not have to kick their worthless mo fo ass.
Iran has not attacked any country, not occupied any country for just about over 250 years.
It’s gone out of it’s way to support terrorism around the world, hey, if you can’t run with the big dogs stay on the porch. Furthermore, your moral relevance is showing. Why don’t you go live under sharia law for a year and then come back and tell us all about how great it is to be a dhimmi.
April 19th, 2008 at 11:19 amIran is attacking American troops on almost a daily basis. Captain Kumbaya above me thinks we “killed enough people” already.
Yeah thats a great theory, we’ll just sit back and let Iran get the bomb and then we will see what country they attack first, Israel more than likely. the US if they could.
April 19th, 2008 at 12:02 pmKeep it simple
2. The faster the better 
April 19th, 2008 at 1:14 pm1. Do a musleem anywhere
3. Any which way you can
Should Israel become a member of Common Wealth of the Unites States? As a member of our Common Wealth, Israeli people will be forever safe. What do you think?
April 19th, 2008 at 5:01 pm