Global Warming To Take Ten Year Break
Telegraph:
Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.
Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged.
This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.
However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.
Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel, Germany, said: “The IPCC would predict a 0.3°C warming over the next decade. Our prediction is that there will be no warming until 2015 but it will pick up after that.”
He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone away.
The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical warming event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest year ever recorded in 1998.
Today’s paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these events and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean “conveyor belt” known as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water north into the North East Atlantic.
This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be over the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that variations of this kind could partly explain the cooling of global average temperatures between the 1940s and 1970s after which temperatures rose again.
Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014
Writing in Nature, the scientists said: “Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic [manmade] warming.”
The study shows a more pronounced weakening effect than the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, which last year predicted that global warming would slow until 2009 and pick up after that, with half the years after 2009 being warmer than the warmest year on record, 1998.
Commenting on the new study, Richard Wood of the Hadley Centre said the model suggested the weakening of the MOC would have a cooling effect around the North Atlantic.
“Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longer-term warming trend from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
“That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades.”
But he said the use of just sea surface temperatures might not accurately reflect the state of the MOC, which was several miles deep and dependent on factors besides temperatures, such as salt content, which were included in the Met Office Hadley Centre model.
If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent uncertain, he added.
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oh, well then…if the scientists say it, it must be true.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:57 amwell, when will computers tell the real weather for tomorrow, seems they often are wrong, I prefer the asking to the frog
April 30th, 2008 at 11:00 amits supposed to take a decade long break.
i understand this. they say this so they can keep pushing a bullshit theory even though there will be no evidence of global warming. makes plenty of sense to me now.
oh and you mean to tell me the earth has ways of actually cooling itself? yet when it warms back up like it did after 1970 then its automatically our fault? man these scientists are brilliant! the earth naturally cools, but cant naturally warm up
April 30th, 2008 at 11:02 amfranchie
you make a great point. they cant even predict rain for tomorrow or how warm my weekend is going to be this week. but yet they can predict 50 years into the future
April 30th, 2008 at 11:03 amA decade-long break… of course! How convenient. Funny how we didn’t hear about this until the global temp took a dive. Shouldn’t these guys have seen it coming?
Hmmmm…. I think I’ll call this “break” a Convenient Untruth. If I make a “documentary” on the subject then perhaps I, too, can become a demagogue! Whee!
April 30th, 2008 at 11:13 amWell this works out well for the “climate change” special interest groups. Now they have 15 years to keep trying to sell their global warming BS even in the absence of any global warming, “I know it aint happening but its coming man I tell you its coming”. These guys are just like the bum with his “The End is Near” sign.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:16 amHenny-Penny
ONE day Henny-penny was picking up corn in the cornyard when–whack!– something hit her upon the head. “Goodness gracious me!” said Henny- penny; “the sky’s a-going to fall; I must go and tell the king.”
So she went along and she went along and she went along till she met Cocky-locky. “Where are you going, Henny-penny?” says Cocky-locky. “Oh! I’m going to tell the king the sky’s a-falling,” says Henny- penny. “May I come with you?” says Cocky-locky. “Certainly,” says Henny-penny. So Henny-penny and Cocky-locky went to tell-the king the sky was falling.
They went along, and they went along, and they went along, till they met Ducky-daddles. “Where are you going to, Henny-penny and Cocky- locky?” says Ducky-daddles. “Oh! we’re going to tell the king the sky’s a-falling,” said Henny-penny and Cocky-locky. “May I come with you?” says Ducky-daddles. “Certainly,” said Henny-penny and Cocky- locky. So Henny-penny, Cocky-locky and Ducky-daddles went to tell the king the sky was a-falling.
So they went along, and they went along, and they went along, till they met Goosey-poosey, “Where are you going to, Henny-penny, Cocky- locky and Ducky-daddles?” said Goosey-poosey. “Oh! we’re going to tell the king the sky’s a-falling,” said Henny-penny and Cocky-locky and Ducky-daddles. “May I come with you,” said Goosey-poosey. “Certainly,” said Henny-penny, Cocky-locky and Ducky-daddles. So Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles and Goosey-poosey went to tell the king the sky was a-falling.
So they went along, and they went along, and they went along, till they met Turkey-lurkey. “Where are you going, Henny-penny, Cocky- locky, Ducky-daddles, and Goosey-poosey?” says Turkey-lurkey. “Oh! we’re going to tell the king the sky’s a-falling,” said Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles and Goosey-poosey. “May I come with you? Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles and Goosey-poosey?” said Turkey-lurkey. “Why, certainly, Turkey-lurkey,” said Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, and Goosey-poosey. So Henny-penny, Cocky- locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey and Turkey-lurkey all went to tell the king the sky was a-falling.
So they went along, and they went along, and they went along, till they met Foxy-woxy, and Foxy-woxy said to Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey and Turkey-lurkey: “Where are you going, Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey, and Turkey- lurkey?” And Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey, and Turkey-lurkey said to Foxy-woxy: “We’re going to tell the king the sky’s a-falling.” “Oh! but this is not the way to the king, Henny- penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey and Turkey-lurkey,” says Foxy-woxy; “I know the proper way; shall I show it you?” “Why certainly, Foxy-woxy,” said Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey, and Turkey-lurkey. So Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky- daddles, Goosey-poosey, Turkey-lurkey, and Foxy-woxy all went to tell the king the sky was a-falling. So they went along, and they went along, and they went along, till they came to a narrow and dark hole. Now this was the door of Foxy-woxy’s cave. But Foxy-woxy said to Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey, and Turkey- lurkey: “This is the short way to the king’s palace you’ll soon get there if you follow me. I will go first and you come after, Henny-penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky daddles, Goosey-poosey, and Turkey-lurkey.” “Why of course, certainly, without doubt, why not?” said Henny-Penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey-poosey, and Turkey-lurkey.
So Foxy-woxy went into his cave, and he didn’t go very far but turned round to wait for Henny-Penny, Cocky-locky, Ducky-daddles, Goosey- poosey and Turkey-lurkey. So at last at first Turkey-lurkey went through the dark hole into the cave. He hadn’t got far when “Hrumph,” Foxy-woxy snapped off Turkey-lurkey’s head and threw his body over his left shoulder. Then Goosey-poosey went in, and “Hrumph,” off went her head and Goosey-poosey was thrown beside Turkey-lurkey. Then Ducky- daddles waddled down, and “Hrumph,” snapped Foxy-woxy, and Ducky- daddles’ head was off and Ducky-daddles was thrown alongside Turkey- lurkey and Goosey-poosey. Then Cocky-locky strutted down into the cave and he hadn’t gone far when “Snap, Hrumph!” went Foxy-woxy and Cocky- locky was thrown alongside of Turkey-lurkey, Goosey-poosey and Ducky- daddles.
But Foxy-woxy had made two bites at Cocky-locky, and when the first snap only hurt Cocky-locky, but didn’t kill him, he called out to Henny-penny. So she turned tail and ran back home, so she never told the king the sky was a-falling.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:34 amand the morale of this story is, don’t trust the the fox, new ?
April 30th, 2008 at 11:42 amCouldn’t of said it better myself.
BTW, I’m no “climatologist” but don’t the Atlantic and Pacific currents run COUNTER-CLOCKWISE, meaning that warm water is moved to the northWESTERN Antlantic and cold water from the Arctic region would be sent by Britian down the EASTERN side?
Just thinkin’ out load here.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:48 amIsn’t it odd the computer models didn’t predict the ‘ten year break’ until the break had already started?
Oh yeah, the IPCC computer models doesn’t include such things as clouds either, because they don’t know how.
Anyone else smell rotten fish?
April 30th, 2008 at 12:03 pmThe longer solarcycle 24 is in hibernation, the colder it’s going to get - think LIA (Little Ice Age), Dalton Minimum, etc.
Global Warming is a trip to the beach. Global Cooling will get nasty - think food shortages, rationing, food riots.
April 30th, 2008 at 12:28 pmDear Scientists,
Publishing your inconclusive data does more to affect the political climate than any man-made emissions have done to affect the environmental climate. Please stop publishing inconclusive data that alarmists will only use for political gain.
_____
“When emissions from land use and land use change are included, the livestock sector accounts for 9 per cent of CO2 deriving from human-related activities, but produces a much larger share of even more harmful greenhouse gases. It generates 65 per cent of human-related nitrous oxide, which has 296 times the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2. Most of this comes from manure.”
- http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=20772&Cr=global&Cr1=environment
____so if the above statement is true that crapola causes more global warming than driving and other industrial factors - and if we believe the UN and the IPCC, then it is true - then wouldn’t most of man-made global warming have destroyed the earth by now because of much larger animal populations and the simple fact that, for the past 2000 years and more, most “civilized” areas have just been dumping their butt jelly in the streets just like the horses and cows and every other living creature???? Hmmm?????
April 30th, 2008 at 1:21 pmThese hosers know their own theory is a load of crap. It’s nothing but a money grab, i.e., wealth distribution. Of course we all know that already as do the global hosers. If this issue is not crushed we all will be paying a ton of increased taxes (money you no longer have) and it will hurt and be near impossible to undo.
John McCain, are you listening?!? We are. Talking to the demoncraps is a moot point as they virtually 100% buy into this trash so we just have to keep them out of office as much as possible. VOTE CONSERVATIVE!
April 30th, 2008 at 1:23 pmWhat a crock! The evidence isn”t panning out the way the hysterists want it to, so they come up with this.
April 30th, 2008 at 1:23 pmI agree Boo Boo.
Does anyone beieve God would build us a planet that we could destroy even if we tried?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:43 pmSo the question is. Are they going to allow Al Gore to keep his Nobel Prize?
April 30th, 2008 at 2:50 pmWhen proven wrong stick you fingers in your ears and say lalalalalala until you come up with a stupid ass excuse such as “the ten year lull”.
April 30th, 2008 at 2:56 pmWell, HELL’S BELLS! That’s the worst news I’ve heard in weeks. I’ve got to fill up the Hummer boys. I was hoping the oceans would rise 700 ft so I could have some beach front property!
April 30th, 2008 at 4:55 pmoh good god, i was wondering what asinine garbage they were going to spew in light of the naturally cooling climate. and now i know. i am so weary of this nonsense. and equally tired of the media outlets that keep pushing it. Like shepard smith at fox’s studio “b”. which fits perfectly for shepard. a “b” class anchor with the analytical skills of a box of hair. after his pronouncement that he couldn’t understand why anyone would question “man-made” global climate change. what a 2nd rate hack.
April 30th, 2008 at 5:19 pm10 Year break? Sound very politically convenient.
April 30th, 2008 at 5:29 pmAn echo of what has been said. That is also why we hear more of climate change vs just global warming. It is expected, the facts are smacking the idiots in the face, so oh its a lull, but we dirty humans are causing it to warm up. I saw a similar article where it was el nino or la nina (I forget which one the article specified) that caused it to get cold. But of course it was still us humans that cause it to get warm. The article did say what caused the nino or nina to occur. “NO IGNORE THAT BIG BALL OF GAS IN THE SKY it has nothing to do with the weather events on earth”. But hey it goes in line with them dims in congress that promote this crap, their brilliant idea to bring down the price of oil is to tax the oil companies. (I saw an article that in 2006 a group of the big non state owned oil spent 100Billion more than their profits on property, drilling etc that cannot be expensed all in one year. So they spent more to get oil from where they are allowed to drill to keep us supplied than they actually made. )Not the obviouse one like drilling for oil of our coasts and in Alaska.
April 30th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Steve:
April 30th, 2008 at 6:01 pmThere’s a song to go with those words. Remember it from when I was a kid. Mom had a two dollar record player and that was one of the 45’s that came with it.
The real crime here is how much it’s costing all of us in bullshit money. I hold AlGore and his ilk responsible for the price hikes on everything from gasoline to corn flakes.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:05 pmThis totally reckless global warming hysteria is fucking up the whole works and is not acceptable in any way, shape, or form.
And the real pisser is that we all do nothing more than sit around and bitch about it.
We Americans have learned well how to bend over, spread ‘em and take it like a man.
I’m beginning to think we like it that way.
Steve:
It starts out - This is the story of Henny the Hen. If you’ve heard it before it’s worth telling again. ‘Cause lots of folks are different, in color or name. This shows sometimes it’s better, than being the same.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:06 pmThe longer solarcycle 24 is in hibernation, the colder it’s going to get - think LIA (Little Ice Age), Dalton Minimum, etc.
Global Warming is a trip to the beach. Global Cooling will get nasty - think food shortages, rationing, food riots.
———————————————————–
https://pat-dollard.com/2008/04/sorry-to-ruin-the-fun-but-an-ice-age-cometh/
April 30th, 2008 at 6:18 pmA crock of &*(^!
All of the Global Climate Scientists (about 200 or 300 in total) know that there has been no atmospheric warming since 1998 and no ocean warming since 2003.
April 30th, 2008 at 6:19 pmDrillanwr:
A lot of people over at solarcycle24.com are closely watching the sun daily for flares and sunspots.
James Hanson, head of NASA GISS (and an Gore cultist) is also watching it closely. With his shiney new model, he first predicted the solar minimum for Dec.06, then Mar.07, and then Mar.08. And now that it’s April we’re waiting for his latest prediction. If the data of global temps don’t match his “up-chart” then first the calculations are checked. Then he either “adjusts” the data, or alters the model. I bet he’s on pins and needles right now.
Hey Jim, is that tiny dot on the SOHO picture a micro sunspot, or is it a bad data point / pixel?
BTW Drillanwr
and all 
April 30th, 2008 at 7:14 pmYour link is a must read. I passed out copies of the article to friends and family (cultists and fence sitters),
when I first saw it a week ago. Waiting for responses.
Where did my comment go?
April 30th, 2008 at 7:18 pmDrillanwr’s link is a must read. I read it last week and passed out copies to my Gore cultist “friends” and fence-sitting friends.
Tomorrow, if this thread is still going, I’ll babble a little about simulations - wrote them at the AF Laser Lab (re: effects on retinas) - like fudge factors and data “adjustment”.
April 30th, 2008 at 7:28 pmHey Tom while you’re bringing up that old load of bull how bout telling us about what it was like when everyone was afraid of the big bad Peak Oil.
Alarmism is bad regardless of weather you’re afraid of it getting hotter, colder or the communists putting flouride in the drinking water to sap and pollute your precious bodily fluids.
Anyone find it funny that FDR was the one who said “We have nothing to fear but Fear itself.” and the dems have now become the party of fear mongering alarmism?
April 30th, 2008 at 8:05 pmNICE car, dude!
BTW
Everyone be patient with the SPAM catcher …
We get to them.
Nabs me and Bash too …
April 30th, 2008 at 8:48 pmSorry everyone…….Climate change is REAL! It’s otherwise know as Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter.
I find it amazing that very few climate hacks mention the BIG, HOT BALL OF GAS.
But seriously, I’m disappointed. I want global warming to be real. I live in Canada and I hate the damn long, cold winters.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:00 pm1998? Wasn’t that about the time SUV and light truck purchases surpassed regular passenger vehicle sales.
April 30th, 2008 at 9:24 pmJust more proof that global warming is a bunch of hooey
April 30th, 2008 at 10:00 pmThe reason Global Warming is taking 10 years off is because AL Gore and the Dhimmis have drug it’s sorry butt all over the place and it’s just plain worn out.
April 30th, 2008 at 10:33 pmNEVER discount the need to be correct! Especially when it effect how much grant money you receive!
OK some facts.
1) The climate is warming!
2) Some warming is due to man! (Not necessarily CO2. Land use plays a major role also.)
3) Man’s impact on climate warming CAN NOT be measured.
4) Using models to prove a hypothesis (current proofs for GE/CC) is not the scientific method.
5) Climate warming has been ongoing for tens of thousands of years since the last Ice Age, and will continue until we change and go back to cooling in front of the next ICE AGE.
6) We can not predict the return of the next Ice Age, BUT historically, the turning point is due.
Impacts of the MOC, PDO, ADO, and delayed Solar Cycle 24 are determining the cooling today. Their depth and duration will determine how long and how deep the cooling will be. They will reverse their natural cycles and warming MAY retrun unless we have reached the tipping point for the next Ice Age.
Cooling is FAR MORE DETRIMENTAL TO MAN than warming.
May 1st, 2008 at 3:38 amMan, I wish I would learn to proof read. I sound like such a retard. That’s supposed to be effects (Sentence 2) and GW/CC (Global Warming/ Climate Change) in item 4 above.
May 1st, 2008 at 3:42 amSo, ah, the earth can be round for 10 years…then it’s back to being flat.
Okay.
May 1st, 2008 at 4:19 amI pay a lot more in property insurance for my Florida properties because of the false risk of increased hurricanes caused by global warming. Which gets passed on the the renters. So these lies are costing all of us.
May 1st, 2008 at 4:23 amUntill the Goracle-fans come up with another “truth”?
One morning Al Gore wakes up after having some trouble sleeping, feeling rather guilty ’bout all the energy he’s been consuming.
He shouts “I’ve got it” and starts to invest in….chicken and everything chicken-related (even chicken-shit) just before announcing his BIG SECRET to the frightened world-population that he found the answer to all our worries: …..eggs!.
Only to get his face on the Times-cover while receiving another Nobel-price for saving the world, becomming a self-proclaimed “saviour” to man-kind, meanwhile seeing his bank-account rise to an even higher level.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:09 amSo … Does THIS mean that GW skank over at TWC, “Dr.” Heidi Cullen (eh hemmmmm … “climate expert”) will get the hell off my TV screen and TWC can get back to giving me the actual WEATHER conditions for the current and next couple of hours??!!??
Might be nice …
May 1st, 2008 at 5:33 amConvenient
May 1st, 2008 at 9:02 amEric;
Nope. Gulf Stream north up the coast, East across the Atlantic to keep Europe warm, back south down to the tropics for a recharge, etc.
If it got interrupted, there’d be ice sheets in London and Paris.
May 1st, 2008 at 5:27 pm