Latest CBS/New York Times Polls Suspect
What the heck? You mean to tell me that CBS and the New York Times might skew numbers to help sway the public into a certain way of thinking? That they may actually be polling biased sources?
Say it ain’t so!
The CBS News/New York Times poll has both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton leading John McCain in head-to-head races by five points.
According to the poll, Obama leads McCain 47% to 42%, with Clinton leading McCain 48% to 43%.
As always, it is important to see how the poll’s respondents break down by party — a look which shows that those questioned self-identified 39% Dem, 28% Repub, and 33% independent in the unweighted sample. The weighted sample broke down 40% Dem, 26% Repub, and 34% independent.
The unweighted sample shows an 11-point margin for the Dems, while the weighted sample shows a 14-point margin.
Two ways to judge the accuracy of the poll’s 11-point margin favoring Dem respondents might include some historical perspective of other presidential elections and how the CBS News/New York Times poll did forecasting the last national elections.
In the 27 elections since 1900, four Democratic Party presidential candidates won by more than 10% points: in 1912, Woodrow Wilson won by 14.4% over a split Repub ticket of Theodore Roosevelt and President Taft; in 1932, FDR beat President Hoover by 17.8%; in 1936, President Roosevelt beat Alf Landon by 24.3%; in 1964, President Johnson beat Barry Goldwater by 22.6%.
In the 2006 mid-term elections, when the Dems beat the Repubs by about 7.5% in the aggregate House vote, the last CBS News/New York Times poll before the 2006 mid-terms forecast a Dem margin of victory of 18%, missing by about 10 points.
Viewing the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll through those two historical prisms might give added perspective on the accuracy of this, most recent poll.
(TNE)
Be respectful of others and their opinions. Inflammatory remarks and inane leftist drivel will be deleted. It ain’t about free speech, remember you’re in a private domain. My website, my prerogative.
If you can't handle using your real email address, don't bother posting a comment.
The only Poll that counts is the one in November. All the rest is BS.
April 5th, 2008 at 4:25 pmIt seems to me that Rasmussen is the most unbiased and accurate pollster. Any evidence to the contrary would be appreciated.
April 5th, 2008 at 5:48 pmHate these fucking polls, they’re never accurate and usually biased somehow and then the outrageously corrupt liberal mainstream media tries to influence the un-informed voter. It’s always about who can trick the un-informed voters the most.
April 6th, 2008 at 1:35 am