Saudis: “We Are Praying U.S. Will Attack Iran”
Likelier and likelier…
WAPO:
The potentially transforming events in the 2008 campaign are matters of war and peace. Both may be in play between now and November, in ways that add extra volatility to the presidential race.
Let’s start with war: The United States is already fighting two of them, in Iraq and Afghanistan. But judging from recent statements by administration officials, there is also a small, but growing, chance of conflict with Iran.
The administration is signaling the Iranians that they need to stop supplying and training Shiite militias in Iraq — or run the risk of U.S. retaliation. The Maliki government in Baghdad, worried about the danger of escalation, is passing this message to Tehran, but so far the only consequence has been that the Iranians have broken off talks in Baghdad that were aimed at stabilizing the situation.
Saber rattling from the Bush White House may seem almost routine, but pay attention to the comment last week by Adm. Michael G. Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “Iran is not going away. We need to be strong and really in the deterrent mode, to not be very predictable.”
The risk of a U.S.-Iranian confrontation is growing in part because Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the Middle East are so eager for it. “Behind closed doors, we are praying that the Iranians will make a mistake so that you will have a reason to attack,” one Saudi told me this week. Another prominent Arab official said he hopes the United States will strike Iranian training camps just over the border from Iraq.
How would a U.S.-Iran confrontation play out in the campaign? Obviously, that depends on how you read the American political mood. Usually, we assume that the nation rallies around the party of war, but that’s less certain in this case. America is war-weary, and it mistrusts President Bush. So a military skirmish with Iran might backfire, adding to public dissent — much as happened with the Nixon administration’s attack on Viet Cong sanctuaries in Cambodia in 1970.
Adding to the combustible mix is Hillary Clinton’s hawkish position on Iran, which has support from the center-right of the party even if she drops out. Her rhetorical threat to “totally obliterate” Iran if it launched a nuclear attack against Israel was sharper than anything that has come out of the Bush White House. The anti-Iran stance from centrist Democrats blunts John McCain’s appeal as the tough-guy candidate. But it complicates the Democrats’ argument for withdrawing U.S. troops rapidly from Iraq, since the main beneficiary of such a move would be Tehran.
The other wild card in the campaign is, happily, the possibility that Middle East peace negotiations might actually bear fruit. Bush administration officials continue to insist they have a chance of reaching an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement while Bush is in office. By this, they mean an agreement on paper — one that would codify the outlines of the two-state solution that was negotiated but never concluded during the last days of the Clinton administration. This “shelf agreement” could be endorsed by the U.N. Security Council and provide a baseline for continuing talks next year about implementation.
A peace agreement — even one that has no practical effect on the ground — would be a feather in President Bush’s cap. But its political benefits for the GOP would be limited. Even a full-fledged peace treaty between Egypt and Israel failed to save Jimmy Carter from defeat at the polls in 1980. In that election, as perhaps this year, the Iranians played the role of spoilers.
Finally, there are noises offstage from Israel and Syria about a possible peace treaty. This would be the ultimate pragmatic bargain — Israel likes the stability that Bashar al-Assad’s military regime provides in Damascus, and it regards Syrian hegemony in Lebanon as an acceptable and perhaps desirable price. An important feature of the dickering between Syria and Israel is that they have used Turkey as the key intermediary. If Turkey can bridge these two, with help from the United States, it would reattach Ankara firmly to the Arab world for the first time since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918.
The 2008 campaign has been so mesmerizing that it’s easy to forget what’s going on out in the real world that could disrupt, once again, the certitudes of the pollsters and strategists. The campaign in recent weeks has focused on pocketbook issues because of worries about a deep recession. But as these economic anxieties fade a bit, we are likely to return to the ground zero of the Middle East, and to the themes of war and peace that will be interwoven through the remainder of this campaign.
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Iran must be attacked. A nuclear Iran is not and never will be an option. Regardless of what happens Nov 4th the Bush administration, Israel and any other country with a stake in a peaceful future for the world will have to neuter Iran.
May 8th, 2008 at 5:50 pmThe map leaves out the attacks from the A-stan side!!!
May 8th, 2008 at 5:51 pmI hope I’m able to get through military training by the time we hit Iran, if we hit Iran.
May 8th, 2008 at 5:54 pmIt certainly appears that there will be an end to the oil shortage within a year. Should we attack and a simple majority of the public is behind it, Obama doesn’t stand a chance in November.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:28 pmSaudis: “We Are Praying U.S. Will Attack Iran”
To whom are they praying to? Moloch? Beelzebub? Dagon?
Are they praying whilst they fondle little boys?
Do they copulate with pigs while they pray?
What sorts of strange & mystical ceremonial outfits do the Saudis wear when they pray?
Does Allah have a special costume? Pantyhose? Chiffon? Perhaps nude?
Is Allah gay *all* the time or just on Fridays?
So many juicy questions. I can barely contain myself.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:37 pmNice cartoon, going on the desktop
May 8th, 2008 at 6:53 pmNice exit strategy. The back door leads through Iran. I like it.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:22 pmWon’t affect the election - if it happens in November. That gives the
May 9th, 2008 at 12:22 amPresident two clear months to eliminate Iran’s military and nuke sites.
Sounds doable to me.
I’ve been dreaming about us attacking Iran ever since the hostage episode. This has been very long in coming.
May 9th, 2008 at 2:15 am“The risk of a U.S.-Iranian confrontation is growing in part because Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the Middle East are so eager for it.”
Why don’t those Saudi fags do it then? They want another war so bad why don’t they go? If anyone needs to be nuked it’s the Saudis.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:21 amKermit, The minute Iran is under fire, the oil wells in America, and off shore, become a national security issue.
Bush/Cheney can open and remove all regulations as CIC. The America working man needs those long term, high paying jobs.
The opening of the oil field would stabilize the economy by adding value to the dollar. These jobs would be filled by the lest educated of Americans.
Then the fist fight starts on the HILL. The Democrats can not have open oil fields and high paying jobs because they can not control people making high wages.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:28 amSaudis would love to see us attack Iran. That way the “non-state actors” (read suicide bombers) that they send over will disrupt Iran’s ability to produce oil, thus making them richer. Not too difficult to see through that one.
May 9th, 2008 at 4:58 amIf they are really our friends, why don’t they help us with the price of oil. fuckers
May 9th, 2008 at 5:28 amWell that Peace Process may just have to be put on hold until Olmert is replaced…the WaPo is such a worthless rag…when we do Iran I recommend we hang the domestic enemy in the DNC/MSM also….the coming War will certainly put a strain on the Hope/Change message.
May 9th, 2008 at 6:22 am“Why don’t those Saudi fags do it then? They want another war so bad why don’t they go? If anyone needs to be nuked it’s the Saudis.”
It’s my opinion too
May 9th, 2008 at 8:02 amIf we hit Iran I’ll go back into the Corps!!
May 9th, 2008 at 8:18 amDitto to the rest. Whack the Persians, w/the assistance of Saudi moles/spies/insiders…whatever. We need to make it clear, if they want it so bad, then let’s talk about oil too..
May 9th, 2008 at 9:30 amfirst of all, everything begins with the will of Allah..
about “The administration is signaling the Iranians that they need to stop supplying and training Shiite militias in Iraq..”
PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party, which is recently recognized as a terrorist organization by US and has been a threat to both civilians, military and territorial integrity since 1984.
who do you think had been supplying and training “them”?
this is neopiratical warfare, and “they” are the pathetic pawns. it is absolutely not a reason to start war or even create tension. try to find another one..
May 9th, 2008 at 10:53 amI’ve got to come out of my SAFE hole and say something. I’ve finally found a media source I trust and respect.
PAT DOLLARD FOR PRESIDENT
May 9th, 2008 at 1:23 pm