The NATO/Russia War Over Georgia Shifts To Ukraine
Georgia was baited into battle and conquest by Russia, who now seeks to install a pro-Russian government. Next!
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s first order of business likely will be to try to thwart Ukraine’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine of the damages of allying itself with NATO,” said Geoffrey Smith at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.
The U.S. has long seen Georgia and Ukraine as counterweights to Russia’s influence in the region. Opposition leaders in the two countries came to power after U.S.-backed popular protests in 2003 and 2004. Their ascension advanced an American strategy of expanding NATO to include both countries and securing energy routes from the Caspian Sea that bypass Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to Turkey runs through Georgia.
The future effectiveness of that policy is now in doubt, with Georgia’s U.S.-educated President Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, weakened by a five-day blitz that his American patrons were powerless to halt.
Medvedev, 42, and Putin, 56, say Russia began the offensive in response to a drive by Georgia to restore control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Now Russia has ousted Georgian forces from there and from Abkhazia, another separatist region, and destroyed much of the central government’s military.
Less Confident
“Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future, and much less confident of its relationship with the United States,” said U.S.-based geopolitical advisory group Stratfor in a research note.
NATO is due in December to review the two countries’ bids to join the Western military alliance. NATO leaders in April promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual membership while declining them fast- track status. Russia, which has also denounced U.S. plans to station missile defense sites in former Soviet satellites Poland and the Czech Republic, says the expansion of the Cold War-era alliance to its borders is a security threat.
NATO should affirm the potential of Georgia and Ukraine to become alliance members in the face of Russia’s incursion into Georgia, senior U.S. officials said yesterday in Washington.
“Russia may find it convenient to raise the level of tension with Ukraine in the run-up to the December NATO review,” Citigroup Inc.’s London-based David Lubin and Ali Al- Eyd wrote in a note to clients. “If the conflict with Russia decelerates or reverses Georgia’s integration with the West, a similar fate could also affect Ukraine.”
Divided Country
Ukraine has a large Russian-speaking population in the south and east that opposes NATO entry and looks to Moscow. Russian officials warn that if President Viktor Yushchenko pushes Ukraine into NATO, the nation may split in two. Russia has made its displeasure with Ukraine clear in recent years, cutting off gas supplies to the country in 2005 and reducing deliveries earlier this year.
The military operation in Georgia will serve “as a warning” to Ukraine that it should desist from petitioning for NATO entry, said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Otherwise, Moscow may intervene to protect the allegedly threatened interests of the Russian population.”
Too Aggressive
An overly aggressive move by Russia against Ukraine might invite a backlash, said Renaissance Capital’s Smith.
“If it reacts too violently against Ukraine, then it risks provoking the reaction it least wants: trade and investment barriers for its companies, a more antagonistic approach to energy transit, and above all, it risks scaring Ukraine into seeking western protection,” he said.
Germany and France opposed NATO entry for Georgia and Ukraine because of the Georgian separatist disputes and opposition to membership among some Ukrainians. They now will feel their concerns have been justified, said Cliff Kupchan of New-York based Eurasia Group a political risk consulting firm.
“Considering both European reticence and possible fears about Ukraine, I think it is very much on the slow track,” he said, referring to NATO membership for both states.
The assault by Russian artillery, tanks and bombers inflicted significant damage on Georgia’s armed forces, which last month increased their size to 37,000 soldiers. Russia’s military has 1.13 million personnel. The U.S. trained and equipped Georgia’s military and in 2006 approved almost $300 million in aid over five years.
Army Regroups
“A substantial part of our military power has been destroyed,” said Georgian National Security Council chief Kakha Lomaia. “However, we did preserve the core of our army, and have managed to regroup it close to the capital.”
An airbase in Senaki was destroyed and three Georgian ships blown up in the Black Sea port of Poti, he said.
A month ago, about 1,000 U.S. soldiers joined 600 Georgians and 100 from Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia in joint exercises at the Vaziani military base near Tbilisi. Russia repeatedly bombed the base during this month’s war.
“The American role in the region has been weakened,” Jan Techau, a European and security affairs analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a telephone interview. “It’s a reassertion of Russia’s dominant role in the region.”
Ian Hague, a Bank of Georgia board member and fund manager with $1.8 billion in the former Soviet Union, said the attack on Georgia discouraged Western investments in energy infrastructure by raising the risk premium.
“It’s somewhat reminiscent, in 1939, when Stalin attacked Finland,” former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told Bloomberg Television. “I think this kind of confrontation is the best kind of answer as to why they are seeking to be members of NATO.”
Be respectful of others and their opinions. Inflammatory remarks and inane leftist drivel will be deleted. It ain’t about free speech, remember you’re in a private domain. My website, my prerogative.
If you can't handle using your real email address, don't bother posting a comment.
“The American role in the region has been weakened,” Jan Techau, a European and security affairs analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a telephone interview. “It’s a reassertion of Russia’s dominant role in the region.”
So this is ‘over and done’?
Seriously, who gives a fuck what some hack at a German thinktank thinks?
I thought the Russian military was pretty clumsy. A supposed ’superpower’ strength military against little Georgia? They should be COMPLETELY owned by now. Instead we get big talkers like Putin and Medvedev acting like they DO own something and fuckheads from Germany swearing that they do. Fucking EU is scared of EVERYTHING.
No way this thing is done.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:53 pmSeems fairly evident now that batshit crazy was just barely under the surface all along.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:13 pmThe US isn’t the only country in NATO. The Germans themselves should be looking at the long term repercussions of their own lack of response.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:43 pm“I thought the Russian military was pretty clumsy. A supposed ’superpower’ strength military against little Georgia? They should be COMPLETELY owned by now. Instead we get big talkers like Putin and Medvedev acting like they DO own something and fuckheads from Germany swearing that they do. Fucking EU is scared of EVERYTHING.”
chouchou , as usual your inflated ego blures your perception ablilities
So seems that EU is awaking here, and that the unilateral policy can’t work anymore, can’t see that you country is going to do anything to help Georgia to recover.
your country has been using Georgia to serve its own interests, undermine that eternal concurrent Russia, instead of trying to make it an useful partner in the war for energy supplies, islamist threats, China suprematy….
and Nato became your “légion étrangére” during the past decade.
Nato has no future in such an agenda
if its remains in state, there will be more conflict among nationalism revendications. Nato needs another direction, not alone US, but also EU.
thus we’ll be able to continue to work together.
ok, I know, that we should not wait for anything good coming from your napoleonic ambitions, but don’t worry, life and evenments are lecturing you
the western world needs to stand together, and that also includes Russia
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/12/europe/diplo.php
http://clivecrook.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/georgia_and_ukraine.php
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/aug2008/gb20080811_864038.htm?chan=globalbiz_europe+index+page_companies
August 13th, 2008 at 3:27 am“I thought the Russian military was pretty clumsy. A supposed ’superpower’ strength military against little Georgia? They should be COMPLETELY owned by now. Instead we get big talkers like Putin and Medvedev acting like they DO own something and fuckheads from Germany swearing that they do. Fucking EU is scared of EVERYTHING.”
ahahaha,
chouchou , as usual your inflated ego blures your perception ablilities
August 13th, 2008 at 3:32 amSo seems that EU is awaking here, and that the unilateral policy can’t work anymore, can’t see that you country is going to do anything to help Georgia to recover.
your country has been using Georgia to serve its own interests, undermine that eternal concurrent Russia, instead of trying to make it an useful partner in the war for energy supplies, islamist threats, China suprematy….and Nato became your “légion étrangére” during the past decade.Nato has no future in such an agenda, if its remains in state, there will be more conflict among nationalism revendications. Nato needs another direction, not alone US, but also EU.thus we’ll be able to continue to work together.
ok, I know, that we should not wait for anything good coming from your napoleonic ambitions, but don’t worry, life and evenments are lecturing you
the western world needs to stand together, and that also includes Russia
Attention à ton ulcère, Chouchou, too much bile there
August 13th, 2008 at 3:50 amStalking again franchie?
August 13th, 2008 at 4:33 amuh ???
nein, mein lieber Mann, just that there are some words that are coming out of the gugle watch
August 13th, 2008 at 4:46 amfuck EU
August 13th, 2008 at 6:03 amsully, that the tiny pleasure that you might still be able to gve us
August 13th, 2008 at 6:08 am“napoleonic ambitions” ?…Funny, considering the source.
I seriously doubt russia considers itself part of the “west”. It seems it has the “napoleonic ambitions”…another mess in europe seemingly awaits, and when it gets really hot, another frantic call will be made to Uncle Sam, and he will send his sons to die again in yet another debacle that part of the world has brought upon itself, just , in the end, to be thanked by them by being called bullies, imperialists, cowboys etc…
The eastern european people who were forced to live under the soviet yolk have a more clear vision of the russians and their ambitions than those who merely had to share the same “neighborhood” If Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Czech Rep. want to join NATO and/or place missile defense systems on their soil than more power to them. The Krauts came and kicked your asses, but eventually were evicted by, well, you know,…but the eastern europeans traded one tyranny for another. And now they have the “audacity” to ask for help militarily/economically…When the Western euro’s stop treating the eastern euro’s like a red-headed step child, and listen to their “hard earned” insight into the russians then none of this will ever end.
The new europe…reminding you why your ancestors left the old europe.
“As far as I’m concerned, war always means failure.” —Jacques Chirac, President of France
August 13th, 2008 at 9:41 am“As far as France is concerned, you’re right.” —Rush Limbaugh
hi Steve,
napoleonic has become a commun adjective in our collective memory
as far as the quoted countries of the former eastern block , yes they know better than us what the Russians are able to
but as far as the last paragraph, I am afraid that your trying to tell us an old tale “once upon a time, there was a big booted Ogre, that lived across the Maginot line, he had such an appetite, that he came along a nice gentle celt village, where the people were still worried of eating good food, enjoy nice beverages and love making… poor of them, the ogre just had to pick up the fattest ones… till there was’nt enough fats anymore, so he had to go further, looks like he messed up with a yankee food provider, there there was his big mistake, it was then likely that bigger booted cow-boys would set him as the N° 1 ennemi, and organised a big patrol to get him dead or alive ; guess, they fast managed it, but the ogre had become so tiny, that they let him desappear in his bunker”
Ok, then that was long time ag, in another century,
August 13th, 2008 at 10:04 amnot likely to happen again
Bush Orders Troops To Georgia ..This could get more interesting ….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aOiuyd2rBlUI&refer=home
August 13th, 2008 at 10:27 amIts a bad situation overall - -
“Your country has been using Georgia to serve its own interests”…
I don’t see unilateral self-serving US policies with respect to Georgia, Ukraine or any other CIS member country.
The US and EU both supported Ukraine (no unilateral or self-serving US policy ). The EU was a leading contributor to Ukraine with $4.6B in support (more than the US).
http://www.eurunion.org/partner/summit/Summit9712/ukrainst.htm
Additionally, the EU provided aid to Georgia (no unilateral or self-serving US policy here).
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1053312.html
As newly founded democracies, Ukraine-Georgia-Belarus-Armenia-Moldova-etc. sent contingencies to Iraq (combat and non-combat). Most understood the importance of a free & democratic Iraq. There was no quid pro quo - if you send contingents to Iraq, the US will support you in a conflict with Russia.
Nobody wishes to escalate the situation and I agree, we cannot create an anti-Russia coalition.
How you equate the situation today with ’self-serving unilateral US policies’ - - I simply do not know.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:29 amseems that lots of people wish that a real WW3 happens, though, they live far away from the front, that is of “educated” and “civilised” ambition to fight far from home, and the western countries know that well since WW2
August 13th, 2008 at 10:42 amI don’t want to disppoint you Jett, if these nations went to help you in Irak, they had the assurance to expect an award of being part of Nato, that ment for them becoming members of the mighty western world and thus escaping from the heavy bear claws that oppressed them during the communist era. I don’t blame them for that, but I didn’t appreciate that in Bush’s mouth that this also ment to become a member of EU
w you equate the situation today with ’self-serving unilateral US policies’ - - I simply do not know.
it’s looking like so from here, the 2 presidents are very labelled “made in US”
We didn’t support a candidate among the lot, just that the rules of a democraty would be respected
August 13th, 2008 at 10:58 amWith Europe being “Unionized”, I say we do what most of Europe seems to want. Withdraw all American military assets from the continent. Let the EU take care of themselves. If the sleeping bear wakes then they can band together to kill it or drive it back in it’s cave. No more American blood spilt on European soil.
BTW what ever happened with the investigation into the desicration of American Graves in Southern France?
August 13th, 2008 at 12:00 pm“If these nations helped you in Iraq, they had the assurance to expect an award…”
As a newborn democracy, why wouldn’t you want to be part of NATO (regardless of Iraq)? NATO is goverened by 26 member countries - - while the US may strongly support Georgia becoming a member, the US alone does not guarantee membership.
Finland & Sweden have expressed a desire to become NATO members though they did NOT directly send troops > Iraq.
“I didn’t appreciate Bush’s mouth that this also meant to become a member of the EU”
Show me where Bush said Georgia would become a member of the EU??????
“These 2 presidents are labelled “made in the US”
Another common myth about the supposed evil US. I suppose you think we successfully financed Sarkozy’s win, too?
http://trans-int.blogspot.com/2004/12/europes-ukraine-iii-who-supports.html
“We didn’t support a candidate among the lot…”
Why, that’s a great safe, NON-position to take. Afraid someone might disagree?
August 13th, 2008 at 12:12 pm“Présentée comme une structure d’accueil et d’encadrement, cette confédération,dont l’idée fut lancée le 31 décembre 1989, devait permettre d’éviterque les Etats qui venaient de se libérer de la tutelle communiste ne seretrouvent sans amarres entre l’Union soviétique et une Europe occidentale
intégrée ; ce projet de confédération était destiné à lutter, pêle-mêle,contre la tutelle américaine, la politisation de l’OTAN, la future prédominanceallemande, la tentation supranationale ou transnationale de la CEE,la rancoeur des anciens pays satellites, et l’isolement de la grande Russie Jouant de l’effet de symétrie avec le projet gorbatchévien de Maison commune européenne, le chef d’Etat français proposa un grand espace flou et complexe, peu réaliste, qui avait l’avantage d’être proprement européen, mais présentant l’inconvénient d’inclure une Union soviétique au bord de l’implosion. Or, pour des Etats qui sortaient à peine de quarante années de dictature communiste, il était inconcevable de faire partie de la même structure qu’une puissance qui les avaient dominés aussi longtemps.Et si la France voulait inclure l’URSS, pourquoi exclure les Etats-Unis?
En juin 1991, à l’ouverture des assises de la confédération à Prague, le Président Vaclav Havel fit comprendre à son homologue français que, sans la participation active des Américains, un système de sécurité ne serait ni souhaitable ni même réalisable. De plus, il devint évident que la participation à cette confédération n’était pas synonyme d’intégration à la CEE. Ce projet a donc été perçu comme un projet dilatoire face aux exigences de la france et l’élargissement de l’ue.”
http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/FD001444.pdf
“Show me where Bush said Georgia would become a member of the EU??????”
I don’t know wether he said it for this state, but he did for Turkey
also there was a precedant for the new EU states issued from the former URSS block, the adhesion to Nato was the preliminary and the necessary agenda before joining EU ; cause there would have been a defense “flou” left between the Former EU and Russia, that frightened these states, the assurance of being Nato partners would also give them the possibilty to enter into the free-market concerns without having to respect the EU social rules
As the creation of EU was ment at the beginnings to avoid a new conflict between Germany and France, Many thought that would also work for new states. Though, it appears yet that this more a complication to reach a quorum in policy options. The nationalisms interfer again, that was not what was designed for the origin project. Yes France made it difficult for the criterium of accession, still careful I suppose, but the raison why is evident, difficult to make a clear policy when a pole of EU nations haven’t the same agenda.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:53 pmBTW what ever happened with the investigation into the desicration of American Graves in Southern France????????
didn’t you see a pic of the american graves in France, and how well maintained they are on that board ??????????
August 13th, 2008 at 1:58 pmfranchie sounds like she’s in a hurry to bend over for Ivan.
This is really Europe’s mess. The Georgian pipeline was laid to ensure Europe had a source of oil that Russia didn’t control. That, not the laughable idea that Putin gives a shit what happens to Ossetians, is the reason for this war.
Once again, America has to do the jobs Europe won’t. And the bitch of it is that we foot the bill, too.
Although I do have to give Sarkozy credit. He’s doing far more than I expected from a European head of state who isn’t a Tory. I’d be shocked if French troops joined ours in Tbilisi, but I guess it’s possible.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:32 pmFranchie, you typed the US was ‘using’ Georgia for its own interests - in exchange, we would provide NATO membership. That Ukraine-Georgia presidents are ‘US labeled’ - you have eluded that the US is somehow sinister in all its motives.
Bottomline, new democracies want to be NATO members and if that is a pre-requisite for EU membership, who cares. What is your point here? Why say Bush promised EU membership when he did not?
I wonder about your America-bashing posts. The US is not afraid to announce (or show) its support for new democracies, presidents and the like. Nor are we afraid to confront terrorism. Sorry the EU is fearful to do the same.
Complacency will eventually breed catastrophic results - your freedom will be lost.
When that time comes, I’ll mail a phone card so you can call Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba, or maybe Venezuela. Good riddance.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:13 pmfranchie sounds like she’s in a hurry to bend over for Ivan.
no Titic, but the other EU nations are likely to watch for it, I am thinking to Germany in particular whose energy supply comes mainly from Russia, not France, we have developped our independance within energy since a long time, nuclear, big tankers sites that get gas and oil on free markets, plus Algeria oil and gas is also a part of our deal, there are no definitive contracts with our suppliers, if one wants to make the idiot, then we are likely to seek for someone else.
Though if Germany gets problems, we morally ought to come at her rescouse… that is the raison why we also have to be careful in treating this crise.
your nice to say you will come and help us, but I don’t see how, your forces are blocated in ME, Afghanistan, Korea, Philipines…
Sarkozy is trying to pick on raisonable arguments, (his formation is lawer’s), what I have seen, is that the president of Russia, who was also a lawer, was ready to accept an agreement on the cease fire conditions, that’s the russian army big both that wants to go further on.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:38 pmJett, nice of you
The US is not afraid to announce (or show) its support for new democracies, presidents and the like. Nor are we afraid to confront terrorism. Sorry the EU is fearful to do the same.
yeah, easy to talk, but now we want to see the acts
and don’t worry for the war of terrorism, we handled it, better than you may think, dunno if you can protect your population inside America from your inside terrorists ?
August 13th, 2008 at 3:43 pm“no Titic, but the other EU nations are likely to watch for it, I am thinking to Germany in particular whose energy supply comes mainly from Russia, not France, we have developed our independence within energy since a long time, nuclear, big tankers sites that get gas and oil on free markets, plus Algeria oil and gas is also a part of our deal, there are no definitive contracts with our suppliers, if one wants to make the idiot, then we are likely to seek for someone else.”
Ugh. She’s right. But as to us being overstretched, the Air Force and Navy aren’t doing much at the moment (compared to the Army and Marines, anyway). While air and sea power can’t take or hold ground, they can do a number on armor columns. If the Europeans can’t hold their own territory with American planes blasting any Russian who sticks his head out of his foxhole, and American ships blockading their ports, they’re not allies worth having.
At least the Georgians and Ukrainians are willing to fight, if we give them the tools to do the job. I’ll give the French credit, they seem willing to ante up, unlike most of their neighbors.
Damn it. France-bashing is one of my hobbies. Hell, I’ve got fuckfrance.com bookmarked. Sarkozy is taking the fun out of it. I almost wish Chirac was back. Now there was the stereotypical obnoxious, whiny, spineless, sniveling, mau-mauing French politician. He was fun to hate.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:57 pmThe US is not afraid to announce (or show) its support for new democracies, presidents and the like. Nor are we afraid to confront terrorism. Sorry the EU is fearful to do the same.
“yeah, easy to talk, but now we want to see the acts”
Franchie, if you haven’t seen the acts, you’re blind (Iraq, Afganistan, Germany, France, Italy, Korea, Georgia, etc). Don’t make me bombard this site with supporting links. Likewise, show me where France has shown similar acts of courage.
“and don’t worry for the war of terrorism, we handled it, better than you may think, dunno if you can protect your population inside America from your inside terrorists ?”
Inside terrorists…WTF? Show me proof that riots took place in US as compared w/the Muslim riots in France.
You are nothing more than a leftist media puppet. Clinging to untrue facts-beliefs…pathetic.
My condolences
August 13th, 2008 at 7:53 pmHuh. I’m digesting all of the franchie hate mail. Didn’t she berate our involvement in Iraq? If so, did she bash the other 34 countries that supported the U.S.? Or is she in an anti-American mode right now because Russia’s propoganda machine commands it.
When’s the last time Russia rec’d aid money from the West so she could secretly spend it on submarines and research re. chemical weapons? This is well-documented. Forget the phoney talk about glasnost; it never really existed.
I think money is one of the major initiatives for Russia to war against Georgia. Now that the former satellite countries have been built up again by the West, they’re ripe for the picking by their former master.
August 13th, 2008 at 9:58 pmawww Tictic, you regret Chirac, good guy
August 14th, 2008 at 3:41 ambillie, go on Tictic referred site, you’ll see what the wise philosopher ment with “war on the words”
I believe that I know who you are yet
August 14th, 2008 at 7:26 amJet, just have a look at CAIR ambitions
my condoleances
August 14th, 2008 at 7:27 amAh frenchie. Does your army still have weapons, or tampons?
Dvl…withdraw from Old Europe, yes. But stick with new europe (Poleland, ukrain etc)
Hey frenchie says they don’t have terrorists within like us hick Americans. Is that why they have Bon Fires with Renalts in paris?
God, the president of france must feel like an outsider.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:32 amGates has said publicly that he sees no military role for the US in Georgia. How much more over for Georgia can it be? The US is leaving their ally twisting in the wind, following tradition, I’m sad to say. And that will embolden Russia when it comes to its dealings with the Ukraine. Bush fucked up on this big time, starting with his yukking it up with Putin in Beijing while Putin’s army was rolling into Georgia.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:26 amSerfer, couché, là, the good boy !
à la niche ! right now
I bet you don’t make the difference with a tampon or your zizi, one’ would have witnessed already then
mind your ass the muslims have something to deal with it
August 14th, 2008 at 11:30 am