Russia In First Stages Of Taking Ukraine
Kudos to Mike in VA for the story…
WaPo September 10, 2008
Perhaps the most urgent question in the world affairs today is whether Russia’s invasion and continuing occupation of Georgia was a singular event. Or was it the onset of a distinct, and profoundly disturbing, national security and foreign policy agenda?
Much as one would like to cling to the former theory, the evidence favors the latter. A European delegation led by French President Nicolas Sarkozy did manage this week to get assurances that Russian troops would withdraw from Georgia (excepting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence Moscow says is “irrevocable”). But ultimately, this short war is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a decisive shift in Russia’s national priorities. The most compelling of these new priorities today seems to be recovery of the assets lost in the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, which Vladimir Putin has called the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.”
How does Russia achieve this goal? By dominating the domestic politics and, more importantly, economic- and foreign-policy orientation, of the former Soviet republics. Anything considered antithetical to Russia’s interests, as interpreted by the current Kremlin leadership, must be discarded — be it democratization, oil and gas exports that bypass Russia, and, especially, the membership in the Western organizations such as the European Union and NATO. And if, in the process, Russia must sacrifice most or even all of the fruits of the post-Soviet rapprochement with the West — including membership in the G-8, entry to the World Trade Organization or ties to the EU — so be it.
Russia’s “targets of opportunity” include simmering border disputes (and virtually all Russia’s borders with newly independent states could be disputed, since they are but the very badly demarcated internal borders of the Soviet Union), and the presence of the ethnic Russian or Russian-speaking minorities in neighboring countries.
Apart from Estonia and Latvia — where ethnic Russians constitute over a quarter of the population, but where NATO membership raises the risk for the Kremlin — by far the most likely target is Ukraine. Kiev has repeatedly defied and angered Russia by the domestic politics of democratization, a decidedly pro-Western orientation, and the eagerness of its leadership to join NATO. Nearly one in five Ukraine citizens are ethnically Russian (a total of almost eight million) and live mostly in the country’s northeast, adjacent to the Russian border.
Mr. Putin has made his contempt for Ukrainian sovereignty clear, most notably at the NATO summit in Bucharest last April when, according to numerous reports in the Russian and Ukrainian press, he told President Bush that the Ukraine is “not even a real state,” that much of its territory was “given away” by Russia, and that it would “cease to exist as a state” if it dared join NATO. Clearly, Vice President Cheney’s trip to Ukraine this past weekend, where he expressed America’s “deep commitment” to this “democratic nation” and its “right” to join NATO, was intended as a message to Moscow.
Still, there is no better place to cause a political crisis in Ukraine and force a change in the country’s leadership, already locked in a bitter internecine struggle, than the Crimean peninsula. It was wrestled by Catherine the Great from the Ottoman Turks at the end of the 18th century. Less than a quarter of the Crimeans are ethnic Ukrainians, while Russians make up over half the inhabitants (the pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatars, one-fifth).
Ever since the 1997 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, signed by President Boris Yeltsin and Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, a solid majority of the Russian parliament has opposed the recognition of the Crimea as Ukrainian territory. Russian nationalists have been especially adamant about the city of Sevastopol, the base for Russia’s Black Sea fleet and the site of some of the most spectacular feats of Russian military valor and sacrifice in World War II and the Crimean War of 1854-55.
Nationalist politicians, including Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, have repeatedly traveled to Crimea to show the flag and support the Russian irredentists — many of them retired Russian military officers who periodically mount raucous demonstrations. In 2006, their protests forced the cancellation of the joint Ukraine-NATO Sea Breeze military exercises. Sevastopol was and should again be a Russian city,” Mr. Luzhkov declared this past May, and the Moscow City Hall has appropriated $34 million for “the support of compatriots abroad” over the next three years. On Sept. 5, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko accused the Russian consulate in the Crimean capital of Simferopol of distributing Russian passports to the inhabitants of the peninsula.
With almost three-quarters of Sevastopol’s 340,000 residents ethnically Russian, and 14,000 Russian Navy personnel already “on the inside” (they’ve been known to don civilian clothes and participate in demonstrations by Russian Crimean irredentists), an early morning operation in which the Ukrainian mayor and officials are deposed and arrested and the Russian flag hoisted over the city should not be especially hard to accomplish. Once established, Russian sovereignty over Sevastopol would be impossible to reverse without a large-scale war, which Ukraine will be most reluctant to initiate and its Western supporters would strongly discourage.
A potentially bolder (and likely bloodier) scenario might involve a provocation by the Moscow-funded, and perhaps armed, Russian nationalists (or the Russian special forces, spetznaz, posing as irredentists). They could declare Russian sovereignty over a smaller city (Alushta, Evpatoria, Anapa) or a stretch of inland territory. In response, Ukrainian armed forces based in the Crimea outside Sevastopol would likely counterattack. The ensuing bloodshed would provide Moscow with the interventionist excuse of protecting its compatriots — this time, unlike in South Ossetia, ethnic Russians.
Whatever the operational specifics, the Russian political barometer seems to augur storms ahead.
From today: Another source….
Ukraine comes to the forefront
Sep 11th 2008
From The Economist
An already fragile Ukraine has been made a lot more nervous by Russia’s war with Georgia—and it is not alone
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What set the alarm bells off in my head was this:
On Sept. 5, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko accused the Russian consulate in the Crimean capital of Simferopol of distributing Russian passports to the inhabitants of the peninsula.
Where have we seen this before? In South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The writing is on the wall - Putin is setting his revanchist wheels in motion in Ukraine. Will Kiev and Washington (screw Brussels) react in time?
It’s now or never.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:09 pmThey have had this planed since when Obama had a big lead in the polls. President Obama will watch democracy after democracy being taken into the second Soviet Union. Putin will hammer Obama and so will the Chinese.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:24 pmThe Democrats will speak of the greatness of communism……..
well this place Sebastopol has been alredy the theater of claims from Russia in 1854 : she wanted to annex it from the Ottoman empire.
France and great Britain were alliees and fought there
http://www.answers.com/topic/crimean-war
seems that today the same scenario is taking place.
Well the Turks aren’t involved anymore, though they make the impossible so that the conflict doesn’t degenerate.
Sarko and Barroso have concluded an economical accord with Ukraine in response to the harsh discussions that took place in Moscow late monday.
Though that Ukraine becomes an EU partner doesn’t disturb the Russians, what they absolutely don’t want it’s that she adheres to Nato.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:44 pmThe mistake was letting Russia smack Georgia around.
It taught the Russians that:
1. The EU are wusses, and WILL NOT go to war unless the knife is at there throats.
2. Obama or McCain? McCain, Putin will tone it down. Obama, whe the hell was he? His stupid UN statement?
I’d say we’re %50 closer to WWIII because of the EU and Obambi.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:01 pmBD, 1500 mercenaire of your country were in Georgia, so they knew what would happen, and your country didn’t intervene though, is it a wuss effect too ?
September 11th, 2008 at 4:07 pmYea you can sure say that it’s been planed for a long time.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:23 pmFranchie makes a good point of raising Russia’s history in the Crimea - they have spilled a lot of blood to get their hands on that peninsula and there is no doubt in my mind that they are willing to spill more to get their hands back on it again.
What this article doesn’t point out is that the Russian navy’s lease on the their Black Sea Fleet’s base in Sevastapol is set to expire in 2017. No doubt, Putin realizes that if Ukraine joins NATO, Sevastapol will become a U.S./NATO naval base in 2018. THAT is something Vlad the Impaler is not going to be willing to accept.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:31 pmPutin will strike again. Who is going to stop him,answer:
September 11th, 2008 at 4:41 pmNOBODY!
Yes, Russia intends to re-acquire the Ukraine.
This is one of many confrontations we will be having with KGB Putin led Russia in the years ahead.
This is one more reason why we need John McCain as the next Commander in Chief.
Vote McCain-Palin.
September 11th, 2008 at 6:32 pmFranchie -
The US troops (not mercenaries) that participated in the military exercises in Georgia had left the country before Russia invaded that country. As we saw from the Kremlin’s unwillingness to assault Tbilisi with American military personnel on the ground, there was no way that Putin was going to launch his invasion while 1000 US soldiers were on maneuvers in Georgia.
It’s going to be up to Kiev and Washington to confront Russian revanchism in Ukraine. If either one loses it’s nerve, it’s over.
September 11th, 2008 at 6:44 pmListening to Glenn Beck this morning he said some things that struck a chord … Russia needs oil prices high, Venezula is helping with that. It seems Russia is trying to do to us what we did to them in 1991. Russia was bogged down in a war that was costing a lot of money, they had internal financial problems and, on top of that, they tried to contend in an arms race with us.
We are fighting on two fronts, one is successful and hopefully starting to come to a close. The other we will need to put more boots on the ground as the other NATO coutries have defaulted on their promisses. Russia is starting to build up its military assests again, China is building up its assests and Iran is building a nuclear bomb. Not that it so much a race, but, in response to all this it is inevitable that we will need to increase the size of our military and all that goes along with it.
Now, Russia has a choice. They can either start a world conflict that would put us into some financial hot water or they can wait and see if two things fall in their favor. The first being if BHO wins in November. The second is if BHO keeps his promise of raping our military budget and killing off a lot of our defense spending.
At that point, Russia will be able to walk into all of those countries and basically tell them they are now the property of the new Soviet Union. No one in the world will lift a finger to help the Ukraine or the Czech Rep. or the rest of Georgia, or any of the other satellite states.
A few more reasons to vote McCain/Palin … as if we needed any more.
September 11th, 2008 at 9:24 pmOne of the Greatset Leaders of Our Time, George W. Bush asked for Ukraine and Georgia to be admitted into NATO three years ago.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:34 amThree years.
Had the Dems not blocked this, on purely political grounds, they were blocking any proposal by the POTUS by that time, this would not be an issue.
Had we drilled for oil in our own land (as blocked by Dems) and not had to rely on foriegn imports outside of our allies (Canada, our largest supplier) this would not have been an issue.
Had Joseph Kennedy, not allowed import of CITGO oil (owned by Hugo Chavez) as a “States Rights Issue” this would not be an issue.
Remember when they painted Ronald Reagan as a racist because he “supposedly” supported states rights?
Where is their concern now that the tax breaks are being given to foriegn dictators?
The presidential election is nice, and we’ll probably win that, but what is going on at thes lower levels is heinous.
Borderline, Marxist, and to say the least, Communist. Get out there people and get the vote out. These people are killing us softly.
Damn, another rant, sorry again.
Franchie, as to rewrite history, your history is flawed, the reason France and GB fought there was because Muslims were intent on world domination.
That was just one of the fronts in that battle for world dominion.
One of the famous Battle’s of Spain took place that same year.
What you speak of is the high water mark of Moslem Emperialism. They had already completed (in their eyes) the genocide of the Armenians and were intent on the same in Spain and Russia as well as Indonesia.
Spain held (where the main Ottoman Army was located) and the Russian ruling family mustered enough troops to hold as well. The Ottomans were held at bay and retreated to what is now called Turkey.
You can call what happened then a “theatre of claims” but that is an out and out rewriting of history.
Franchie, I fully expect you to come back and state your case, the fact remains, Muslims were intent on World Dominion and the Christian West rose up.
September 12th, 2008 at 1:17 amI will fully debate you on this issue. You are wrong.
If you like I will also debate you on the 680-800 early Moslem attempt at world dominion. As you’ll see I can name Generals, Caliph’s and Popes. Answer.com is politically correct and incomplete. Perhaps you should peruse a Bernard Lewis history of Islam. He’s only the foremost historian in the history of the Western Hemisphere on Islamic issues.
Franchie, also read the early writings of Winston Churchill, his campaign in Algeria (where he was taken prisoner, and was the battleground between Tunisia and Spain) is not only compelling but easy reading.
Once again I’m on a rant, my only point is to keep the record straight.
displaced Ched Head
you must replace the crimean war in its context : the ottoman empire was weakened by moral delusionments (idem for the end of the roman empire), Russia felt great and wanted to expend “pan-slavism”, France and UK were the other dominating “empires”, colonial conquests.
The weakness of the ottoman empire served their agenda for trades and conquests. Crimea war was a convenient help and pretext to keep the statu-quo in their progressive conquests
http://wsu.edu/~dee/OTTOMAN/EUROPE.HTM
September 12th, 2008 at 3:36 amtruly undeniable fact that the Crimean war was reconquered by the Russian Empire…but excuse me but the original Russian Empire - Kievskaya Rus - was were the Ukraine is now. the rest of the territory we know today as the Russian Federation is the land that used to belong to many of the nomadic eastern tribes - Khazars, Alans, Circassians and other Siberian tribes… so the claim of the Crimea by modern Russia is fundamentally wrong. a lot of ethnic Ukrainians also reside in Russia proper, they can declare independence as well, from the Russia. I dont know how deep Putin wants to step in, but Russian federation is far from being a homogeneous state, they have 70 autonomies with non-Russians (ethnically) residing there, what will happen if they all declare independence at the same time???
September 12th, 2008 at 4:21 amUnless Russia can somehow undermine Ukraine from within, it’s going to hurt them alot more than Georgia did. The ONLY thing Ukraine has given up since the USSR split, has been their nuclear weapons. They still have a pretty formidable armed force and much more significant than Georgia. This will be quite entertaining, I better get to the store and stock up on some popcorn &
September 12th, 2008 at 6:28 amThis started when the KGB style poisonings started.
September 12th, 2008 at 7:02 amIt will be decided November 4.
It will be decided November 4.
or not, seen already that happening lately
September 12th, 2008 at 9:00 amsully i think it started way before poisonings
if anybody cares to see what does putin represent please watch this one: “Poisoned By Polonium”
http://rustavi2.com/top_video.php?id=5&lang=eng
If yall remember the Litvinenko, former FSB agent that said fuck you to the system, that got injected with polonium and died a horrible death
its about 2 hr long documentary, but its an eyepener for those who still hail the putin and his version of russia.
September 12th, 2008 at 9:54 amGiorgi -
I guess we could take it all the way back to the Russian apartment bombings that brought Putin to power. He’s left a trail of corpses everywhere he goes.
September 12th, 2008 at 11:03 amGeorgi-
The Litvinenko poisoning was what I was referring to but it seems likely we’ll need at some point to go back to his birth. Unfortunately for the world.
September 12th, 2008 at 11:15 am