The Red And Blue: Electoral College Looking More For McCain Than For Hussein
Guess ya just gotta go out of our country’s news sources (MSM) to find stuff like this …
Remember during the primaries all you heard was how, even though Hillary Clinton had the popular vote among delegates, but that Obama had more superdelegates? The MSM kept hammering that point. It was in just about every report on the democrat primary.
However, this report, from a news site overseas in India, of all places, has an American Electoral College speculation about the McCain vs. Obama POTUS race. I have seen in the last day or two small blurbs regarding this from other sources … but here’s my thoughts on this ‘cover-up’ by the media.
1. Rule of thumb #1 when dealing with democrats/liberals … If they say “Well, it’s going to be a very close race” … that is code-speak for “Our guy will probably lose and we’ll have to take the republicans to court in key states where our ACORN-type operatives didn’t quite get the job done … and our huge team of lawyers have already typed up the papers and will just need to file them formally in a split second’s notice …”
2. Rule of thumb #2 (most of us DO have two) when dealing with democrats/liberals … If they say things such as, “Well, everyone has done it (see computer hacking guilt, for instance) … BOTH sides are being nasty … ” They are not only guilty as hell, but being worse at it then the other side is or has been.
Anyhow, try as hard as they may, the MSM isn’t doing so well campaigning for their Messiah as they think, according to some of the non-leftist American polling:
US Electoral College Forecast Shows McCain Is Way Ahead Of Obama
From Asia News International - (Daily India)
Washington, Sept.18: The latest forecast of the Electoral College suggests that John McCain is way ahead of his Democratic rival Barack Obama.
The research to be presented at the annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences on between October 13 and 15, less than three weeks before the election, says that as of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario.
Operations researcher Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, along with a group of students and collaborators at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, created http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/, a math model that dynamically forecasts the outcome of the election.
Over 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics are expected to attend next month’s meetings. Jacobson’s model applies a mathematical model to state polling data, using a dynamic programming algorithm to forecast electoral results.
“The results from the 2000 and 2004 presidential election suggested that it can be difficult to predict the winner of the presidential election based on popular vote,” says Jacobson.
“In fact, it is possible that the popular vote and the Electoral College vote can lead to significantly different results,” he adds.
Jacobson’s model employs Bayesian estimators (which help scientists make decisions when conditions are uncertain) to determine the probability that a candidate will win each state.
He has obtained state polling data from the Rasmussen Reports, the Quinnipiac University Poll, and SurveyUSA.
State-by-state probabilities are then used in a dynamic programming algorithm to determine a probability distribution for the number of Electoral College votes that each candidate will win in the 2008 presidential election.
Professor Jacobson believes that this model provides a more realistic method of predicting the results.
“We take into account ’safe’ states- states that each candidate is basically guaranteed to win,” says Jacobson.
In the model, a safe state is one in which the candidate has an 85% chance or greater of winning.
Jacobson’s model also factors in undecided voters. It accounts for five different voting scenarios involving undecided voters, each considered individually.
A “neutral” scenario provides an unbiased handling of undecided voters. “Strong Republican” and “Strong Democratic” scenarios provide two extreme envelopes around which results can be judged and evaluated, while “Mild Republican” and “Mild Democratic” provide more realistic possibilities if late-breaking information surfaces that shift voter preferences.
“Undecided voters can have a significant role on the outcome of the election. In fact, they are likely to be the ultimate deciders of who will win this election,” says Jacobson.
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It could be even bigger than this projection. McCain and Palin by 10 points in the general election. We p/u some more Congressional and Senate seats in an electorial ass-kicking for the Saul Alinsky protege and his 7-11 shopper.
Reminds me of this vid:
September 18th, 2008 at 12:03 pmhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEpmSGa-zRM
It is sad to see that my state is still blue. Michigan has the worst economy in the US and a democrap governor who raised taxes. Our unemployment is almost 9% and not looking to go any lower. I can’t figure out why this state insists on voting for these fools. Sad, sad, sad
September 18th, 2008 at 12:17 pmWhat gives with PA
for whom Barry said they cling to their religion and guns. Dang. Wake up out there. Get rid of Murtha and vote McCain.
Illinois should be divided into two states. The people’s republic of Chicago and the state of Illinois. However, I do plan to retire in Chicago. I understand folk there never die and there is proof. They vote every election.
September 18th, 2008 at 12:23 pmBecause most states with a large inner city population vote democrap, because democraps are the ones that prop up the dead beats on welfare.
September 18th, 2008 at 12:35 pmsweet
September 18th, 2008 at 12:44 pmKerry by “6″ that was the final final before the election poll.
No one ever made the mistake of saying Dimocraps were smart, if they were, why do they keep voting for the same crooks?
September 18th, 2008 at 12:52 pmWe have to go to newspapers in India to get some objectivity? Say what? On the TV today, Nora ODonnell or whatever her name is could barely contain her glee when she saw Obama was up in the daily tracking poll. It was gross. I think journalists should have to be licensed, at least, the ones working on network news and PBS, since they are “public airwaves.” That might keep them a bit more honest.
September 18th, 2008 at 12:55 pmIt is sad to see that my state is still blue. Michigan has the worst economy in the US and a democrap governor who raised taxes. Our unemployment is almost 9% and not looking to go any lower. I can’t figure out why this state insists on voting for these fools. Sad, sad, sad
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Maybe yes, maybe no …
Keep in mind a certain percentage of pictures we use on the site for stories we pull out of google and such archives … That red/blue map is from a previous election and, by the grace of God, might NOT reflect the 2008 POTUS election … Pray hard.
September 18th, 2008 at 12:55 pmNan, can you say UNION.
September 18th, 2008 at 2:09 pmSame in my state of Illinois. The states with lots of unions are blue.
Although I cannot for the life of me figure out Minnesota. I dont know why its so liberal.
www.270towin.com. Play around. Really quite interesting to imagine all the possibilities. I think it still comes down to Ohio.
September 18th, 2008 at 2:46 pmDan. Same. We had Erlich as Gov before the new guy. Now that was a smart man. He single handedly pulled us out of deficit, and guess what. We’re back in again thanks to the “Economic Superiority” of the Democrat Gov. Moreover he’s cut funding for the Police, etc, and threatened to cut funding even more if we didn’t vote for a raise in the tax.
September 18th, 2008 at 3:21 pmWell something changed that brought their numbers to 273 for MAC and 265 for Bambi.
September 18th, 2008 at 5:04 pmThis election is going to hinge on voter turnout. 36 million Dhimmis voted in their primaries. The total turnout in 2004 was ~62 million.
If as many Repubs stay home as usually do… we’re screwed.
Stuck with a puke that could not care less about ‘the will of the People’.
Now is the time to work harder. They will still try to pull the same shit.
Foley just got a walk today, cocksucker, literally.
Don’t give me that look, you know he is.
September 18th, 2008 at 7:14 pm