DC Think Tank Extrapolates Actual Consequences Of An Iranian-Israeli Nuclear Conflict
Dude, I grew up during the cold war and always thinking about how far, in miles, and in what population center’s path via wind direction I was if a nuclear strike were to occur in populated areas here in America. This article reminded me of things I had forgotten. Like a 1 kiloton nuclear warhead can cause 3rd degree burns at 8 miles and a 1 megaton can do the same at 24 miles…
Daniel Pipes has an informative, interesting, and disturbing piece up right now…
Anthony Cordesman, a strategist at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, has estimated the consequences if Tehran gets the bomb and a nuclear exchange with Israel ensues. He expects, writes Martin Walker of United Press International,
“…some 16 million to 28 million Iranians dead within 21 days, and between 200,000 and 800,000 Israelis dead within the same time frame. The total of deaths beyond 21 days could rise very much higher, depending on civil defense and public health facilities, where Israel has a major advantage.
It is theoretically possible that the Israeli state, economy and organized society might just survive such an almost-mortal blow. Iran would not survive as an organized society. “Iranian recovery is not possible in the normal sense of the term,” Cordesman notes. The difference in the death tolls is largely because Israel is believed to have more nuclear weapons of very much higher yield (some of 1 megaton), and Israel is deploying the Arrow advanced anti-missile system in addition to its Patriot batteries. Fewer Iranian weapons would get through.”
Why such disparities in numbers? Because of differences in yield.
“The biggest bomb that Iran is expected to have is 100 kilotons, which can inflict third-degree burns on exposed flesh at 8 miles; Israel’s 1-megaton bombs can inflict third-degree burns at 24 miles. Moreover, the radiation fallout from an airburst of such a 1-megaton bomb can kill unsheltered people at up to 80 miles within 18 hours as the radiation plume drifts. (Jordan, by the way, would suffer severe radiation damage from an Iranian strike on Tel Aviv.)
Cordesman assumes that Iran, with less than 30 nuclear warheads in the period after 2010, would aim for the main population centers of Tel Aviv and Haifa, while Israel would have more than 200 warheads and far better delivery systems, including cruise missiles launched from its 3 Dolphin-class submarines.
The assumption is that Israel would be going for Iran’s nuclear development centers in Tehran, Natanz, Ardekan, Saghand, Gashin, Bushehr, Aral, Isfahan and Lashkar A’bad. Israel would also likely target the main population centers of Tehran, Tabriz, Qazvin, Isfahan, Shiraz, Yazd, Kerman, Qom, Ahwaz and Kermanshah. Cordesman points out that the city of Tehran, with a population of 15 million in its metropolitan area, is “a topographic basin with mountain reflector. Nearly ideal nuclear killing ground.”
Further, Cordesman expects that Israel would need to keep a “reserve strike capability to ensure no other power can capitalize on Iranian strike” and might target “key Arab neighbors”— Syria, Egypt, and the Persian Gulf states in particular.
Israel would have various options, including a limited nuclear strike on the region mainly inhabited by the Alawite minority from which come the ruling Assad dynasty. A full-scale Israeli attack on Syria would kill up to 18 million people within 21 days; Syrian recovery would not be possible. A Syrian attack with all its reputed chemical and biological warfare assets could kill up to 800,000 Israelis, but Israeli society would recover.
An Israeli attack on Egypt would likely strike at the main population centers of Cairo, Alexandria, Damietta, Port Said, Suez, Luxor and Aswan. Cordesman does not give a death toll here, but it would certainly be in the tens of millions. It would also destroy the Suez Canal and almost certainly destroy the Aswan dam, sending monstrous floods down the Nile to sweep away the glowing rubble. It would mean the end of Egypt as a functioning society.
Cordesman also lists the oil wells, refineries and ports along the Gulf that could also be targets in the event of a mass nuclear response by an Israel convinced that it was being dealt a potentially mortal blow. Being contained within the region, such a nuclear exchange might not be Armageddon for the human race; it would certainly be Armageddon for the global economy.
Walker concludes that Cordesman’s analysis spells out “the end of Persian civilization, quite probably the end of Egyptian civilization, and the end of the Oil Age. This would also mean the end of globalization and the extraordinary accretions in world trade and growth and prosperity that are hauling hundreds of millions of Chinese and Indians and others out of poverty.”
(Daniel Pipes)
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Sure sounds to me like those Iranian pissants cannot be allowed to make the bomb.
Of course, the UN will stop them…cough, cough…
June 9th, 2008 at 5:05 pmSobering, very sobering to think about this possibility. This is an ironic means to gain allies from some Arab states. Live or die like the rest.
I wonder how Ezekiel 38 & 39 can be described in this scenario?
June 9th, 2008 at 5:36 pmIt would be the end of a lot of ages but oil, just this year they’ve found massive amounts off the south american coast if we would just start drilling in the USA now and pile the coal high and fire up some reactors by the time this goes down we can ride this hell wave out.
June 9th, 2008 at 5:48 pmThis piece needs to translated and shared with every WOG in the ME. Only fair they should know what Amadadickwad has in store for them. Attack Israel and suffer damnation.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:07 pmIt might be too late, actually.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:37 pmAnd yet so many people go to by day, not even knowing that Iran is an important subject. Too much CNN, not enough brainpower to find information themselves….And these are the people Obama thinks we can negotiate with…These are the people who, DAILY, threat Israel with extinction, and people want to tell us we have no right to tell them they can’t have nukes.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:42 pm“…not enough brainpower to find information themselves…”
Hey guy, I don’t have enough brain power to find the info myself, that or I’m to lazy. But either way, I rely on the Dollard nation to collect it for me.
And a fine job they do. 
June 9th, 2008 at 6:50 pm“…not enough brainpower to find information themselves…”
Hey guy, I don’t have enough brain power to find the info myself, that or I’m too lazy. But either way, I rely on the Dollard nation to collect it for me.
And a fine job they do. 
June 9th, 2008 at 6:51 pmDamn it!
I didn’t mean to do that up there.
June 9th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Bash: Three Words, Duck And Cover
June 9th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
0007, 
I’m past the point of even findgn my truck, dont worry ’bout it. 
Where are my keys. Oh weel, well I mean. 
June 9th, 2008 at 8:04 pmMaybe what they need is a modern “day after” movie made, and made available throughout the region by legal or illegal channels. Make sure the general populaces know exactly what they are looking at.
I remember watching that movie as a kid and it scaring the bejesus out of me….:P
It won’t be made in Hollywood……but a movie about us being forced to pull out by a liberal regime, and a Nuclear Israel vs Iran showdown that shows it’s consequences for the people there and around the world could definately do some good to wake people up around the planet. I wish THAT movie would be made…..when can you get some people on that Pat?
June 9th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
John H,
June 9th, 2008 at 10:13 pmI hope Pat is listening. Once YA is out, I think that movie should be the next project for Pat and his Dollard nation.
If Obsama is elected, this war is for sure.
June 10th, 2008 at 12:41 amYou also have to expect to lose a couple of American cities,
most likely NY and DC.
Sure they don’t have missiles that can reach that far,
but they have yachts.
Almond Dinner Jab’s religion accepts the “martyring” of his
entire country for the advancement of blah blah blah.
I wasn’t born yet, but I wonder if this is what it felt like in the
30s, with Germany sending out all the signals, and nobody paying
any attention at all.
I hope Bush finds the Cajones to act before Obsama gets anywhere
near the Presidency.
Does anyone care that death is what they want? One flash and they get gash is their motto, virgin gash apparently. We need to conventionally kill them all.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:16 amI don’t believe that “Armageddon” is really probable, unless we have to believe in the prophecies, also in the Mayas’… then 2012, the end !
June 10th, 2008 at 4:23 amIran is no Germany
Ahmadinejad is no Hitler
Germany was/is a world power. Iran was/is not.
Ahmadinejad is a school teacher.
Hitler rose from nothing and became the leader of the most powerful nation/state and military since Rome.
This comparison doesn’t fit.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:14 amThe problem is that Amadenajad is willing to sacrifice Iran to usher in the 12th imam. It would be preferable to liquidate the Iranian government rather than vaporizing the Iranian people. But I’ll back Israel in either case.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:57 amBut Germany didn’t have the bomb. It’s a very big equalizer when it comes to comparisons between military forces of different countries.
You also do realize that the United States did not have a huge nuclear arsenal when it ended WWII don’t you? If memory serves we had something like 3 nukes when we bombed Japan. The PERCEIVED ability to do more destruction was enough to stop an almost suicidal nation from continuing the war. Keep in mind, they were willing to just about sacrifice everything to keep fighting. Hence the fact that they were training their women and children to fight with sharpened sticks to protect the homeland. Also, recall the kamikaze.
Point is, it really won’t take long for Iran to supercede Germany as a world power. All it would take is ONE nuke going off. At that time, nobody would know Iran’s capability and that might be enough. Recall how surprised everyone was when North Korea operated its first nuke test. Western intelligence thought they were years away from where they actually were.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:48 amIsrael will survive, it’s enemies not so much. The Day After movie would be a block buster. NOBAMA.
June 10th, 2008 at 7:51 amComparing countries is irrelevant - their goals were/are the same - domination of the world and destruction of the Jewish people
Ahmedinejad is as willing as Hitler was to do the unthinkable without remorse
Any country that can use a nuclear weapons against another has world-changing power
Ahmedinejad is a trained terrorist, Islamic fanatic and ruler of a country that seeks nuclear weapons to continue to terrorize the world - the size of his military is irrelevant once he has nuclear weapons
If anything, Iran is a bigger problem to the world than Germany, certainly more deadly to Israel.
June 10th, 2008 at 8:50 amAhmedinejad already laid his cards out years ago for the world to see. Hardly anyone has picked up on it. Nukes are just part of the equation into gathering global domination.
He believes terrorists and terrorism is a power that can dominate nations. It took 18 terrorists to execute 911. Years ago he predicted 100,000 terrorists could bring the world to his knees. Over the years he has greatly increased his homegrown terrorists, well on his way of reaching the 100,000 mark if not surpassed already.
Another party of the equastion is controlling global oil supplies. A 1/3 of the global oil supplies pass through the narrow straights of hormuz off the Iranian coast. An oil tanker doesn’t stand a chance against a short range missle.
I don’t know if he truly believes he’s the 12th Iman. I do known he is hell bent on aquiring power. Much like Hitler & Stalin. Only this time Ahmedinejad is aquiring nukes and several 1000 terrorists working under his command.
June 10th, 2008 at 9:30 amA world without an Iran…
June 10th, 2008 at 9:49 amYeah Kev M, wipe the fuckers off the map.
I believe the information in this article is why the Prez has not attacked Iran. He is committed to keeping our country peaceful. No more days like 9/11. He’s done it but the problem remains.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:34 amLock N Load
Iran is weak. I think it is all bluster was my point.
June 10th, 2008 at 10:35 amSorry dude, I missed that. I agree, that just as Saddam did, Ahmedinejad talks big, but can we really afford not to take him seriously as far as nukes are concerned?
June 10th, 2008 at 11:08 amBluster or not, why not take them at their word? If we reward their behavior we just get more of it. Hitler said the same things and he certainly was serious. How do you ‘know’ that Ahmadinejad isn’t serious? Their behavior certainly looks consistent with their fanatical rhetoric to me: financing Hezbollah, allied w/Syria, pursuing nukes (e.g. the heavy water plant at Arak - which indicates a weapons-grade plutonium production intent, and the enrichment facilities at Natanz, which are too small to support a commercial reactor’s enriched fuel requirement but about right for weapons production).
June 10th, 2008 at 11:15 amOK guys let’s break this down.
First of all this is some think tank guy who built a simulation model to examine effects of a hypothetical engagement. These simulations are notoriously inaccurate because they make assumptions - and the assumptions are up to the modeler or whoever is sponsoring the research. I see the following flaws right off:
1. Iran does not presently have a functioning nuclear weapon. If they did it would have been preceded by a test. It’s one technological hurdle to enrich the uranium — it is quite another to make a functional bomb .. even of the Fat Man / Little Boy variety (WW-II)
2. Once a warhead is developed it has to be married to a delivery vehicle. That combination has not been tested. You wouldn’t want to put a nuke on an untested missile and have it blow-up (low order) on the launch pad.
3. The entire scenario is a 1 vs 1 pairing. If you read the fine print in most of our treaties with NATO, Japan, Australia, etc. you’ll probably find the fine print that an attack on this ally is the same as an attack on the US and we reserve the right to reply in kind.
4. Any use of a nuclear, biological, or chemical weapon on US soil or against US forces would free the US to reply in kind i.e., they use a chemical weapon ( a weapon of mass destruction)on us, we use a weapon of mass destruction against them. Our choice of the weapon of mass destruction would be pretty narrow since we have eliminated chemical and biological weapons from our arsenal.
5. The report asserts “Walker concludes that Cordesman’s analysis spells out “the end of Persian civilization, quite probably the end of Egyptian civilization, and the end of the Oil Age.” I disagree. Saudi Arabia, the USSR, Mexico, Canada, and the US all have huge proven reserves. At worst what we would see is a huge spike in prices followed by expansion of production in other fields.
Capt, USAF (Ret)
June 10th, 2008 at 11:30 am@WJC
The comparison between Germany and Iran fits to a T. Same anti-semite rhetoric. Same Aryan supremecist philosophy…same division of the world into two parts…one supremecist, one not.
If Germany had the nomb they would have used it. Iran will do the same.
The Iranian government end-game is to force the re-appearing of the Mahdi in order to bring about a Muslim Armegeddon and a new World Order.
Anyone who doesn’t take Iranian threats seriously is eith a delluded moron, or is ignorant of Islam or both.
BTW, you sound like that Nazi puke Hauser. He was full of shit too.
June 10th, 2008 at 11:37 am@afitgrad86
Your analysis completely leaves out the crux of the matter. Whic is Shia Islam and the Iranian theocracy’s world views and apocrophial end-game.
Not until western governments and militaries study Islam, its military and startegic vision, will those governments and militaries be able to translate tactical advantages in the battle space to startegic gains across the entire GWOT.
You people in the military got the tactical thing down pat. But you have no strategic vision, because you lack the necessary knowledge of Islam to do gain that insight.
If you can’t define your enemy, then you violate the base tenants of strategic warfare as well enumerated by Sun Tzu which is to first know your enemy.
How, you going to know your enemy when you don’t even bother to study his philosophy and motivations and military doctrine?
June 10th, 2008 at 12:06 pmDan
Ever hear of MADD? Let me guess it doesn’t apply here because they are ALL crazy in Iran.
Must be nice to play God and want to create Holocausts on regular Iranian citizens.
Bush is following the proper course here.
How about those 8 million Ukranians Stalin killed? Don’t count? How about the 3 million Cambodians under Pol Pot. Don’t count?
Finally Nazism was strictly a German phenominon. It can’t be exported
June 10th, 2008 at 1:08 pmThe thought of millions of dead Iranians sends a thrill up my leg.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:10 pmOh by the way when EXACTLY did Ahmadinejad threaten the US with destruction? Give me the quote and the day.
His threats to Israel Dan are garbage. They hold NO water
June 10th, 2008 at 1:12 pmWhile what you say about knowing the enemy is right on (and if I may add NEVER underestimating them) my comment was directed at the accuracy of this article.
First its a simulation which makes it suspect unless you know what went into. Second it will be a long time before they have a SRBM or ICBM capable of delivering it (ask N. Korea) and third the Israelis could conserve their warheads because we would be using ours.
June 10th, 2008 at 1:26 pmWell, for instance, just a few days ago…. “Death to America” seems pretty clear to me. They use it like an “applause” sign:
June 10th, 2008 at 4:52 pmhttp://www.memritv.org/clip/en/1784.htm
I’m not sure that a “long time” is actually very comfortably long. Look at the time scale of their development of the Shahab missiles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahab
June 10th, 2008 at 5:14 pmYa but we’re developing stuff too … try this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_laser
June 10th, 2008 at 5:49 pmYes, but the last thing I want is to go into a war on anything like an equal footing. I want overwhelming force and minimal casualties and destruction on our side, total destruction and massive casualties on their side. The worst thing is to be “proportional” - it just prolongs the conflict, kills more people, and they don’t understand that they were defeated, unlike Germany and Japan.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:05 pmNot to worry…this could never happen…Hussein is going to use his dialogue-fu on Imadinnerjaket.
June 10th, 2008 at 6:18 pmThe similarities match the risks. We all know Nazi scientist were working secretly on a nuclear program. Historical documentation and eyewitness accounts (physicist involved in their hidden program) prove that Nazi Germany would have used the bomb had they not been thwarted. As other posters have expressed the question is not how large or small a nuclear arsenal is, the motivation behind such programs is the real marker. In Israel’s case it is a form of defense and deterrence, Iran’s leaders on the other hand have indicated in no uncertain words and for many years what they plan to use a nuclear arsenal for. They don’t even necessarily need to deliver such a device via a rocket - if they can smuggle ordinances into Iraq, they can do the same using their proxy armies in Hamas and Hezbollah. I can’t see them targeting Jerusalem either as they risk having the entire muslim world turn on them seeing there are several important mosques and Mohammedan sites there.
Tel Aviv however… Perhaps McCain is privy to some info when he recently suggested the American embassy move to Jerusalem..
June 10th, 2008 at 6:24 pmWJC:
Man, you are one dumb fuck. MADD works for non-jihadis, it don’t work for the jihadist mindset.
And you need to crawl back in your hole Hauser. Get lost.
June 11th, 2008 at 2:59 am@afgrad86
I got the drift of both you and the article. What you are missing is the vision that Iran and frankly Islam has laid out for the world. Supremacy, conquest and slavery.
In addition to which, when Iran uses Islamic apocrophal imagery they mean exactly what they say.
The technology to deliver those nukes, they already posses.
All it would take is one Kamakazi mission to deliver it.
There’s no MADD doctrine in Islam. To kill or be killed in jihad (quital) is their highest goal. They don’t need rockets to hit us or the Israelis, they can deliver a strike in other ways too.
The end game here is real simple. Cause as much chaos and destruction in the world as is possible…until the whole world is against Iran. Then their Mahdi will return (or so they think).
In order for MADD to work, you’d have to have a government of people who are more interested in life than death. We had that with the USSR, we do not have that with Iran.
Anyone who thinks that Iran is all bluster is full of shit.
Iran is after the same things that Muhammed and Hitler were after: World conquest and domination of an Aryan race of people with everyone else as its slaves.
Hitler failed. Iran, indeed Islam itself is picking up where they left off in 1683 and trying to accomplish Hitler’s goal of annihilation of the Jews.
Bomb Iran…now…
June 11th, 2008 at 3:15 amIn fact, Iran is counting on MAD working working *against* us - once they have nuclear weapons we will be even more reluctant to attack them, giving them a freer hand. The battle goes to the bold.
June 11th, 2008 at 6:25 amWolf
The death to America stuff has been going on for a long time with those yahoos. I just yawn and laugh. They are dreaming and they know it.
June 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am@WJC
Get lost doogey. Take your antisemetic rant elsewhere.
And don’t use the God term bud. You’re a Nazi…God is a foreign concept to punks like you.
Be gone.
June 11th, 2008 at 11:14 am